[中国新闻] 微妙的平衡――从中国射星看台海局势

日月光

不久前中国发射一枚导弹摧毁一颗自己卫星的新闻，已经给从华盛顿到东京的亚太地区带来冲击波。不过，这些对于象近几十年来一直密切关注中国军事崛起的林中斌(Lin Chong-Pin)等安全专家来说，北京所展示的这种能力并不令他们感到惊讶。
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4 p. Y4 ]2 {. C* U3 I% M& ocsuchen.de作为一名学者，林中斌一直都在对中国人民解放军进行研究；作为一名台湾政府的前高级官员，他也曾与大陆发生过“口水战”。现在，林中斌则以台湾淡江大学国际与战略研究所的教授和军事专家的身份，来观察海峡两岸和亚太地区的局势。人在德国 社区  N+ b( g8 h8 `9 Q' l+ C
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美国《新闻周刊》网络版1月25日发表该刊记者亚当斯(Jonathan Adams)与林中斌针对北京进行的反卫星试验、台海军事平衡以及中国对地区统治力的雄心等问题，进行了一番交谈。4 F" p* _# K! [5 W9 ^/ a
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《新闻周刊》：为什么中国决定继续进行这种反卫星试验？
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林中斌：这不是一朝一夕就发生的。我记得在上个世纪八十年代末期，他们就谈论过要在未来“占领高度”，也就是占领太空的意思。现在，中国的技术已经达到了一个可以进行这种试验的阶段。
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6 X" T$ K$ Y8 F- N, G, @7 lcsuchen.de《新闻周刊》：中国的反卫星能力将会对一场未来的台海冲突造成多大的冲击？) m/ A& G$ w+ j( V  z0 u' S

6 U( i6 I( u2 _9 j: I6 \csuchen.de林中斌：很明显的暗示是，这是一次1996年试射飞弹的重演，但这种说法存有疑问。那时，在中国向台湾附近发射两枚导弹后，美国向台湾海峡派出了两个航母群，想化解升高的紧张局势。现在，由于美国的卫星遭到威胁，那些欲开往台海地区并向中国军队开火的美国航母群的行动，大打折扣了。
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8 o/ W5 [0 w! q4 m《新闻周刊》：到达哪种程度呢？
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3 U/ i1 I' s2 W3 v  o4 N& Q$ |+ D2 }人在德国 社区林中斌：当你的“天眼”被打下来时，你怎么能发射准确呢？也就是说，“在你决定再次派出航母前，你得三思而行了。”所以，北京的举动也是给华盛顿的决策者们出了道难题，当台海出现危机时，是干预还是不干预，这确实是个问题。csuchen.de$ J( D; q! @5 d0 N. ?1 h
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《新闻周刊》：美国对帮助台湾进行防御的承诺到底有多强？csuchen.de, U9 R7 c9 F$ p) O, f4 k4 J( g& m3 J

2 c  t9 b7 x* o5 s( v林中斌：我认为现在仍然还是非常强大的，华盛顿方面已经公开表示，如果不是因为台北的挑衅而出现一场冲突的话，那么美国就有义务进行干涉。但是，当你比较一下过去几年的声明，你就可以发现，这种合作的决心正逐渐减弱，我们当然理解，美国在海外有场流血的战争，在国内有三倍的赤字。所以，在未来干涉台海冲突时，你不得不三思而后行。0 \# z5 I% K) m) w7 E" v. G7 J
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《新闻周刊》：那么，中国可能正指望美国别插手台海冲突？
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) W$ g7 N& T  A8 v人在德国 社区林中斌：似乎好象不是那么回事。中国最新的大战略就是，把美国的强大影响从东亚地区排挤掉，但不是通过战争，而是利用经济和文化。中国军事能力的迅速现代化，将会成为北京的“非军事手段”的一根脊梁，如外交。2 U; j1 F# O2 u1 Z

# i* P6 l% H8 a$ k3 V北京领导层中已有了一个非常强烈的共识，那就是目前最重要的事情，是抓住眼前这个千载难逢的机会：“没有严重的外来威胁，这是我们能够取得经济增长的大好时机。”所以，北京想拥有一个和平的环境，其首要任务就是发展经济。
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2 ?8 V( u0 d# ]csuchen.de《新闻周刊》：台海的军事平衡向大陆方面倾斜多少？
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林中斌：可以说在海军质量上的这种倾斜已经发生了。台湾空军仍占平衡优势，但如果台湾不更加努力的话，其优势就会被逆转。在弹道导弹方面，没有可比性：他们有，而我们没有。人在德国 社区  [! O1 h$ n% F, `9 e# P
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《新闻周刊》：即使存在这些趋势，台湾应该做些什么呢？% F0 n7 d+ g# ?: M& W0 O6 g

$ }8 ]1 e2 `3 ?( @) |人在德国 社区林中斌：从军事上讲，非常简单：我们应该购买武器。但这样做也不那么容易，我们的经济表现不好，社会主流民意并不支持购买昂贵的武器。年轻人不喜欢服役，甚至绝大多数人都不考虑军事竞争。+ a: T  t+ A  Q1 A7 ^5 ]0 U- d

8 T2 l0 b% U' z1 v5 {人在德国 社区《新闻周刊》：海峡对峙将会引发战争的可能性有多大？csuchen.de0 K# ?1 h7 ^8 j0 G) i/ u8 i+ s; F

" Z; `, l  D$ E, Zcsuchen.de林中斌：可能性微乎其微。北京对台湾的最高优先权是，我称它为不用战争的“合并”。北京已有日益增加的诸多手段来这样做，其中包括经济、文化交流、操纵媒体、钳制台湾的国际空间和心理战。人在德国 社区' v% s" v- ~3 U( m0 c, T, W9 _) ]

) c1 g/ X/ P' ^( r此外，如果发生一场战争，北京就会面对台湾出现的流血和经济基础遭到破坏这样的结果。在这样的征服过后，北京也会不得不去面对难以控制的民众。因此，军事选择是北京的最后选择。甚至北京的军事选择从来没打算打到美国和摧毁台湾，相反，只是想阻止美国介入，抓住台湾，就象把一个漂亮而面带微笑的新娘揽入怀抱那样。这就是他们的想法。' T, `) m3 y; T  a9 |

1 e6 K2 o" l* d0 _《新闻周刊》：那么到目前为止，中国的战略取得多大成功？$ P  z8 ?$ e" W+ m
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林中斌：我给你举一个例子。以前，当台湾领导人无论是口头上还行动上都向独立迈进时，北京就会用弹道导弹作出回应。现在，他们什么也不做了。于是，华盛顿就会在第二天跳出来，对台北发出一个警告。我把这个称为通过华盛顿来遏制台北，并且很起作用。
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《新闻周刊》：日本怎么样？它也在寻求在本地区扮演一个更大的安全角色。你认为中国和日本关系将会走向何方？悲观主义者称，中国和日本的利益将不可避免地发生冲突，你怎么看？
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2007-1-28 12:45

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4 M% w- a2 e5 A6 l3 J0 g台湾军方正在离大陆仅约六十公里的东引岛配置雄风二型导弹，这是台湾首次在这个由台湾控制最北端的小岛配置反舰导弹。台湾媒体分析认为，雄风二型射程可达一百五十公里，其可以有效扼制福建闽江口，同时也对南下的大陆东海舰队形成威胁。分析也指出，台军这次在东引岛设置导弹，打破了两岸军事默契。（资料图片）csuchen.de6 B; ^7 p- i7 k& f; B# |
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0 Y+ }9 M! h& p1 c3 {. I6 l2006年5月10日，中央军委副主席、国务委员兼国防部长曹刚川在北京会见美军太平洋总部司令威廉．法伦。（新华社）
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1月5日，中国航空工业第一集团公司在北京举行新闻发布会，介绍中国一航研制的具有完全自主知识产权的第三代战斗机──歼-10战斗机的相关情况。这是歼-10战斗机。（新华社）csuchen.de" C4 `" E7 N( \, ~$ b  i0 l1 Q

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Delicate BalanceThough concerned by China’s missile test in space, one Taiwanese security expert is confident that economic interests will keep the peace in Asia. ( S" i) A1 J# R8 J6 N
WEB EXCLUSIVE1 U/ {3 q- K0 a3 q1 e2 W6 A+ m
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* |: C# o& Z! \$ `) e3 g; zJan. 25, 2007
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News that China had destroyed one of its own satellites with a missile last week sent shockwaves through capitals from Washington to Tokyo. But for security experts like Lin Chong-Pin, who have closely watched the rise of China’s military in recent decades, Beijing’s capability came as little surprise. Lin has studied the People’s Liberation Army as a scholar, and verbally sparred with China as a top Taiwanese government official. Now, he watches developments across the Taiwan Strait and in the region from his perch at a Taipei think tank. NEWSWEEK’S Jonathan Adams spoke with Lin about Beijing’s satellite-slaying test, the cross-strait military balance and China’s ambitions for regional domination. Excerpts:* L0 ~! {" R  |0 t8 f' `

# F) Y4 ]& L& n5 b$ ^+ r: YNEWSWEEK: Why did China decide to go ahead with this antisatellite test?
6 ]/ ^' r7 {% a; U  bcsuchen.deLin Chong-Pin: This didn’t happen overnight. I remember in the late ‘80s they were talking about “occupying the heights” in the future, which meant space … The technology has reached a stage at which it now can be tested.人在德国 社区3 h4 N  d, G1 T& e
How much of an impact would China’s antisatellite capability have on a Taiwan Strait conflict?* I0 A4 c6 m0 }9 @
The very obvious implication is that a replay of the 1996 scenario would be questionable. That was when the U.S. sent two aircraft carrier groups to the Taiwan Strait [after China launched two missiles near Taiwan], resolving rising military tension. Now, because U.S. satellites are threatened, the operation of the aircraft carriers—for them to arrive and fire missiles at [Chinese military] installations—are being compromised.+ n' U, O7 j0 K, e& I
To what extent?
& B% ~% @: e, lWhen your eyes are knocked out, how can you shoot accurately? It’s a way to say, “You have to think twice before you decide to send aircraft carriers again.” So it’s throwing a monkey wrench into the decision-making in Washington, D.C., when there’s a crisis in the Taiwan Strait—to intervene or not intervene, that is the question.; N, E9 @" D% _6 z$ S
How strong is the U.S. commitment to help defend Taiwan?
5 A! c0 ~, T2 X7 Q, l, K7 g人在德国 社区I think right now it still remains pretty strong. Washington has said officially that if there is a conflict not caused by Taipei’s provocation, then the U.S. is obliged to intervene. But when you compare the statements over the years, you can see that the resolve of partner states is gradually weakening. Of course we understand, [the U.S.] has a bleeding war abroad and a triple deficit at home. So you have to think twice about [intervening in a Taiwan conflict] in the future.
" x2 I" w+ U/ \  B+ cCould China be calculating that the United States might stay out of a Taiwan conflict?csuchen.de  @) ?$ B' G$ u2 v. s
That doesn’t seem to be the case. China’s new grand strategy is to squeeze out the leading influence of the United States in East Asia without war, but with economy and culture. The rapidly modernizing military capabilities of [China’s People’s Liberation Army] will serve as a backbone of Beijing’s extra-military instruments, like diplomacy.  e+ o* j+ [: C; B; Z4 n

6 |% ~$ j4 I# M* ^! M& Xcsuchen.deThere’s a very strong consensus among the leaders in Beijing [that] the most important thing for China now is to seize this window of opportunity, which has not occurred in centuries: “There’s no serious threat outside China, this is the time when we can make economic growth.” So they want to have a peaceful environment and achieve economic growth first.csuchen.de9 z# ^6 q( Q9 u' Z

$ {8 L  h$ @* a# Q. l, s2 V! KHow much has the cross-strait military balance tilted in China’s favor?csuchen.de  x3 s, R5 s7 M2 ?" J
We can say that the naval qualitative crossover has already occurred. The [Taiwanese] Air Force is still there competing, it’s balancing, but if Taiwan does not try harder, it will be tipped over. And in ballistic missiles, there’s no comparison: They have them, we don’t.
& U0 N8 [9 g& F5 D$ R/ B+ B+ x1 k4 n7 v3 bGiven these trends, what should Taiwan do?) R1 ?+ B6 x3 S; {. N& `
Well, militarily speaking, it’s very simple: we should buy weapons. But it’s not that easy. Our economy is not doing well, and the prevailing sentiment of society does not support the purchase of expensive weapons. Young people don’t like military service. And most people do not even think about the military competition.9 k4 L% W8 e, _  O
How likely is it that the cross-strait standoff will lead to war?8 e) q% [  C; F% S, l) p
Less and less likely. Beijing’s highest priority on Taiwan is what I would call absorption without war. Beijing has an increasing number of instruments to do that, including economy, cultural exchanges, manipulation of media, strangulation of Taiwan’s international space and psychological warfare.' i) U8 d* G! J. s2 g! ]. x
Additionally, if there was a war, Beijing would face the result of bloodshed in Taiwan and the damage to the economic infrastructure. After a conquest, Beijing would have to face a rebellious population … The military option is the last option. And even the military option has never been to strike the U.S. and destroy Taiwan. Rather, it’s to deter the U.S. from coming in, and to seize Taiwan—like grabbing a beautiful, smiling bride into your embrace. That’s the idea." E- F  P( J) j
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How successful has China's strategy been so far?
% C  o. m% L8 [6 K, z# t. Z3 {人在德国 社区I’ll give you one example. Before, when Taiwanese leaders inched toward independence, either in rhetoric or in action, Beijing would go ballistic. Now, they do nothing. Then Washington comes out the very next day, jumps up and issues a warning to Taipei. This is what I call going through Washington to contain Taipei. And it’s working.csuchen.de# K$ F2 N" U0 N* Y5 z: r- r5 B

$ ~1 C8 {9 `8 KWhat about Japan? It’s also seeking a larger security role in the region. What direction do you see China-Japan relations taking?人在德国 社区% N) O: C5 K+ }9 U2 g0 K
In November 2004, [China-Japan] tensions rose because of the submarine intrusion [when a Chinese submarine entered Japanese waters]. In the very same month, Tokyo announced to the world that Japan’s trade with China surpassed that between Japan and the United States. It was a point of no return … Japan realized that its economic recovery after 10 years of slump in the 1990s was largely due to its trade with China. And the business community also put a lot of pressure on the government in Tokyo to improve relations. So political relations have already warmed up.
  P0 T2 B! f+ x8 P% m! l3 eBut pessimists say that China and Japan’s interests will inevitably clash.
' J! X- \( R! c/ P' z1 fBeijing knows very well they would lose a war with Japan. They know how good the Japanese Navy, and even its Air Force, are. So they’ll try to avoid military confrontation.
4 z- y/ I. C! x1 w9 y0 Acsuchen.deThe United States intends to pull back some forces to Guam, and reduce its presence in South Korea and Japan. How will that affect regional security?
5 i: ?, e  ?. c9 t/ i% X& w$ aFor now, I think Beijing prefers to see the presence of the U.S. military in this region, because Beijing is worried about Japan, and thinks the U.S. can restrain Japan. But as the U.S. voluntarily withdraws, because of a lack of capabilities or a lack of economic wherewithal, somebody will have to step in. Will it be Japan, China or both? I think by that time, they will work out something together, because it’s in their best interests … Growing economic interdependence will become more and more important as time goes on, and will constrain military confrontation. And the trend has already begun.2 ]0 ?- `9 f. A
© 2007 Newsweek, Inc.. H: @& k' K* Y/ x* H; C6 K5 N% g

/ _2 r) f: d: S. ?6 Y  q) ?7 C- I, j[ 本帖最后由 日月光 于 2007-1-28 12:46 编辑 ]