[国际新闻] 分析：究竟谁来指挥联军对利比亚战事？

BBC外交事务记者乔纳森·马库斯 BBCdiplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus: n5 q- T3 B( J3 u& d# u
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在执行利比亚禁飞区的军事行动中，法国和英国部队扮演了主要的角色，难免让人猜想这两个国家应该是在负责战事，因为毕竟首先向利比亚发起攻击的是法国。9 ^* X  i8 w  F2 |8 v# p; _
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不过，随着战事的展开，美国显然起着关键的军事主导，摧毁利比亚固定的防空实力靠的是美军的力量。

美国国防部长盖茨周日（3月20日）说，华盛顿希望“在数天时间内”将行动控制权交给法国英国联军或者北约。

不过，这样说容易，做起来难。

目前，联军的行动由设在德国斯图加特美军基地的美军非洲司令部指挥。人在德国社区, ^* B0 h3 D" h! z) U7 E

不过，美国空军却又驻扎在德国的另一个基地拉姆斯泰因。人在德国社区  Y2 Y& Z, R( j2 ?6 Y) g
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军事行动不仅涉及可行性也同样涉及政治。人在德国社区2 m. ]* y) R& T- q
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总指挥部必须有必备的通讯和设备起到掌控全局的作用。人在德国社区3 W5 |; h: g, a" B
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这就是为什么在设想任何军事行动时，最恰当的指挥部地点应该是一个现成而且已经启用的指挥部。+ P" `* ]6 n5 M* m
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在利比亚这样一个涉及多国参加的军事行动中，北约似乎明摆着可以起到发号施令的作用。当年北约指挥的军事行动将塞尔维亚部队赶出了波斯尼亚。

另外美国中央司令部曾经负责入侵伊拉克废黜萨达姆·侯赛因的行动，也是另一个显而易见的指挥中心。人在德国社区6 h6 N. s) ]# x* @( W# [2 k. S" W, r

但是利比亚地处北非，所以美军非洲司令部也就成了理所当然的行动总指挥。
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顾名思义，美军非洲司令部是美国在全世界根据区域划分的六大军区司令部之一。美军非洲司令部建于2007年，显示美国对非洲安全利益的日益重视。( P. b$ b3 P( E. p- m$ Z8 j
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原本美军非洲司令部应该设在非洲国家，但是最终证明无法得以落实。所以该司令部从美军驻欧洲司令部衍生而出，最后设在了欧洲。人在德国社区5 S' z) C: C9 |1 [- }4 o
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在利比亚军事行动问题上，美国很显然希望日后只充当后援的角色，重点放在搜集情报和其他方面。人在德国社区0 g; D$ ]( W) ?4 B

但是，又有谁可以代替美军非洲司令部？

英国首相卡梅伦在议会讲话时明确表示了他的意向。他说希望看到“指挥权移交给北约”，“这是经过尝试和考验的，有效地将各国团结起来，而且过去曾经负责过禁飞区的运作”。

不过，北约有其自身的问题。其中一个原因是北约成员国还没有就指挥利比亚禁飞区行动达成一致意见。人在德国社区. m' y) A/ ]$ b
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土耳其对这一行动表示担心，其他国家也有保留意见。
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挪威则表示，在这一多国行动该由谁指挥的问题得以澄清之前，该国的六架战机将不参加行动。

意大利也表示，除非北约接过指挥权，否则将对联军使用意大利军事基地重新评估。人在德国社区6 B; }/ y5 k9 w( M/ \" T
阿拉伯国家
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北约的军事计划目前仍然在应急状态下进行。但是到目前为止还没有获得政治上的首肯。北约说现在还在进行“非正式的磋商”。

实际上北约另外还有一个政治问题。正是由于阿拉伯国家联盟支持设立禁飞区才使联合国安理会通过了有关的决议。
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可是，自从禁飞区决议通过之后，阿拉伯国家联盟又在参加行动的问题上态度迟疑。人在德国社区2 p$ a! P) S: e. `( o8 L

卡塔尔已经同意参加行动，阿联酋预计也将加入。

据信，阿拉伯国家对由北约领导本次利比亚禁飞区行动会颇感不安，因为北约深深地卷入了在阿拉伯国家引发很大争议的阿富汗战事。

法国外长朱佩说，阿拉伯国家联盟希望利比亚禁飞区行动不完全由北约负责指挥。不过，朱佩自己认识到，北约的作用最终是完全必要的。csuchen.de! N* T! |3 o5 ^) m

最终的结果或许是一个折衷迂回的方案。) A+ V( y0 ?7 F
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伦敦皇家军事研究所的麦克·克拉克认为：“最后可能将指挥权交给某个北约成员国，但是仍然利用北约的指挥架构。这是解决军事和政治问题的最佳方案。”+ _7 h5 Q6 E6 Z& Y6 \  y; I5 b
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Libya military operation: Who should command?6 u- M0 P+ X. X- u4 b. B
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When Britain and France presented themselves as prime movers in the military operation over Libya, many wondered if they might be in command. It was, after all, French aircraft that fired the first shots.& i6 g: b/ W$ F8 X! d

Yet it was the US that was inevitably going to be the key military player in the opening phase, bringing crucial capabilities to bear for the destruction of Libya's fixed air defences.
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US Defence Secretary Robert Gates said on Sunday that Washington expected to turn over control of the operation to a coalition headed by France, Britain or Nato "in a matter of days".- T7 B- }: ?0 _' T- x
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But this is not proving so simple.

For the moment the coalition mission is being commanded from a US base in Germany by the Pentagon's Africa Command.人在德国社区% l7 _( m! M; Q- B3 u7 M
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This is located in Stuttgart and its air component is at the US air force base of Ramstein - also in Germany.csuchen.de, C2 D# f. t" [2 ?0 R# B

Military command is a matter of practicalities but also of politics.

The command headquarters has to have all of the facilities and the communications to be able to mount and control an operation in the first place.
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That is why, when any military action is envisaged, the job is best done by an existing, functioning headquarters.1 a" A) a1 ^( d& B* `5 R9 |
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For an complex multi-national mission like the Libyan operation the obvious candidates would be Nato - which, for example, commanded the operation to eject Serbian forces from Bosnia - or an established US headquarters like Centcom - which ran the invasion of Iraq to oust Saddam Hussein.

North Africa falls into Africom's area of responsibility, so it was the obvious choice.) s3 t8 f/ X: y9 |$ }# I

Africom as its known, is one of six regionally-orientated US commands. It was established in 2007, a sign of Washington's growing security interest in the African continent.5 r$ J5 C9 j9 |  L- [' F
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The original intention was to locate it in an African country, though in the end that proved impossible to arrange. It grew out of the Pentagon's European Command so Europe is where it stayed.

In time the US clearly hopes to move towards a more supporting role, with the focus on its intelligence gathering assets and so on.% Q0 l0 Q5 E% u" J7 s0 U

But what can take Africom's place?人在德国社区  b6 c# x. X' h4 T
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Speaking in the House of Commons the British Prime Minister David Cameron has clearly registered his preference. He noted that he wanted to see the "transfer to a Nato command, using Nato machinery. It's tried and tested", he said, adding: "It works, it brings people together and it has operated no-fly zones before."
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But Nato has its problems too. One of the reasons that it could not command from the outset is that its member nations had not yet reached agreement to do so. Turkey, for one is very uneasy, not least because of scope of the operation.

But other countries have reservations too.
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Norway has said that the six fighter jets it contributed will not take any action as long as it remains unclear which country is going to command the multi-national force.; e$ N3 D9 C* H9 {3 T+ P3 I1 h

And Italy has warned that it will review the use of its bases by coalition forces unless Nato takes command.人在德国社区% s! m+ [, d6 R9 I

Arab League hesitations: E, ^7 r- U; I; L3 M
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Nato military planning has moved ahead on a contingency basis. But as yet there has been no political green light. "Informal consultations are continuing," is all Nato is saying at the moment.4 h& h* q% O; d) T& v$ v
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There is another political problem with Nato. It was Arab League support for a no-fly zone that was crucial to the passage of UN Security Council resolution 1973.人在德国社区; S! b& |1 o: @: H" f. C

Since then, with signs of some hesitancy from the Arab League's leader Amr Moussa, (he now says he fully backs the no-fly zone) there has been an urgent effort to get contingents from Arab air forces into the operation.

Qatar has agreed to take part, with the United Arab Emirates expected to join too. Qatar could operate a small number of its French-built Mirage jets alongside French aircraft. But Arab governments are thought to be uneasy about Nato command, given that Nato is heavily engaged in Afghanistan - a controversial operation for many Arab countries.人在德国社区) r- a' Q' J- O" \
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"The Arab League does not wish the operation to be entirely placed under Nato responsibility," says Alain Juppe, the French foreign minister. But even he accepts that a Nato role may eventually be necessary.

The most likely outcome is a kind of half-way house.

Michael Clark, director of the Royal United Services Institute in London puts it this way: "Giving the command to another Nato nation, but still using the Nato command structure, would make good political and military sense," he says, not least because this operation is taking place just across the Mediterranean where there are few logistical challenges.
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周二，一架美国F-15战斗机在利比亚班加西附近坠毁。图为当地居民在查看飞机残骸

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