[国际新闻] 中国的军事是一个威胁吗？

日月光

去年似乎一切顺利。2006年5月，时任美军太平洋司令部总司令威廉.法伦（William J. Fallon）上将在对中国进行官方访问期间参观了四座城市，那次访问的核心是公开邀请北京显露其在军事计划和军费方面的秘密。给中国的奖励是什么？美国官员后来表示，是和五角大楼的对等人物坐下来，不被当成敌人，而是被当成对太平洋有正当兴趣的崛起中的势力。在那次访问之后，中国外交部发言人表示（两国的）军事关系面临一个珍贵的发展机会。在北京国防部的会晤中，副参谋长葛振峰告诉法伦，两国军队需要停止透过“无知和猜疑的透镜”看待对方。
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    不到一年后，这个“珍贵的机会”可能面临危险，因为法伦访问的推动力在消散。两个月前，中国首次成功测试反卫星导弹，尽管受到华盛顿、莫斯科、东京和其他一些外国政府的压力，中国还是沉默了将近两周。北京官方的回应延误了相对长时间，这助长了猜疑，人们猜测中国的文官领袖在测试之前究竟知不知情。
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    然后，3月4日，在副国务卿内格罗蓬特访问北京之际，中国透露它来年的军费会提高近18%，约为450亿美元，是五年来最大的一次增长，这个增幅比美国国防部官员预计的要大。美国认为直接军事总支出——包括北京没有包括在年度军费报告中的购买新设备费用——将达1500亿美元。
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    当然，与美国的军事费用相比这个数字相形见绌。五角大楼2008年将获得6200亿美元。甚至日本的军费也比中国的高出不少。而且美国多数国防规划者依然认为，中国军费的首要战略目标是遏制美国对任何台海危机的干预。8 V" B* G  L) _  R* P
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    但真正的问题不在于这些数字，而是数字背后缺乏信息。无论中国是否有意，内格罗蓬特在离开北京时清楚感受到压力。加上反卫星导弹，中国在三个月里两度让美国官员有这种感觉。内格罗蓬特在回国前在记者会上表示，“在我们的对话中，重要的是我们要了解中国的计划和意图。”
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    在担任太平洋司令部总司令期间，法伦感受到美国批评家的压力，他们认为他对北京的对等人物寄望过于热切，一些国防分析家认为这些人仍然敌视五角大楼以及它在东亚的庞大存在。对北京来说，可惜的是在过去三个月它的藏腌肉游戏给了批评家的批评弹药前所未有的多。
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Peoples Liberation Arm) soldiers parade before the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Tiananmen Square.) w3 E; V' A4 ^2 q2 J" z

! j" }+ }8 `+ e2 B: Y: ~2 rEverything seemed to have been going well last year. In May 2006, Admiral William J. Fallon, then combatant commander for U.S. forces in the Pacific (CINCPAC) — and now the chief overseeing the more fraught theater that includes both Iraq and Afghanistan — visited four cities during an official tour of China that was, at its core, an open invitation for Beijing to emerge from the secrecy that shrouds much of its military planning and spending. The incentive for China? To sit down, U.S. officials later said, with counterparts in the Pentagon and be treated not as an enemy, but as a rising power with valid interests in the Pacific and beyond. After the visit, China's foreign ministry spokesman said, "military ties [between the two countries] are facing a precious opportunity of development," and at a meeting in Beijing's defense ministry, the deputy chief of the General Staff, Ge Zhenfeng, told Fallon that the two militaries needed to stop viewing each other "though the lens of ignorance and suspicion."
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$ u( G% Y4 ~* C1 QLess than a year later, that "precious opportunity" may be at risk, because whatever impetus the Fallon visit gave toward banishing "ignorance and suspicion" is plainly dissipating. Two months ago, China for the first time tested successfully an anti-satellite missile, but then was mum about it publicly for almost two weeks, despite being pressed for information by not only Washington but Moscow, Tokyo and several other foreign governments. The relatively long delay in any official comment from Beijing even fueled speculation as to whether China's civilian leadership was aware of the test before it happened.
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Then, yesterday in Beijing, China took the occasion of a visit from the U.S. State Department's new point man for Sino-U.S. relations — just confirmed Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte — to reveal that its defense spending in the forthcoming year would rise by nearly 18%, to almost $45 billion, the biggest increase in five years, and a larger increase than U.S. defense officials had anticipated. The U.S. believes that a straightforward accounting of total military expenditures — including new equipment purchases, which Beijing does not include in its report of annual defense spending — would amount to $150 billion.4 w) u- C2 I7 y* B
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The amount the U.S. spends on defense, of course, dwarfs that sum. The Pentagon will get a projected $620 billion in 2008. Even Japan spends considerably more than China. And most defense planners in the U.S. still believe the primary strategic objective for China's defense spending is to deter the U.S. from intervening in any crisis over Taiwan.( D' y% {! P7 W" N! }8 I- Z

+ R& H3 L7 Y) p' A2 aBut it's not really the numbers that matter here; it's the lack of information behind the numbers. Whether it was China's intention or not, Negroponte clearly felt sandbagged as he left Beijing. And, together with the anti-satellite missile, that makes it twice in three months that U.S. officials have felt that way. "It's important in our dialogue that we understand what China's plans and intentions are," Negroponte said at a Sunday press conference before heading home. It's true that the U.S. continues to participate in periodic, lower-level meetings between Pentagon and Defense Ministry officials (the so-called Defense Consultative talks). But while he was CINCPAC commander, Admiral Fallon took some heat from critics in the U.S. who feel he was way too solicitous of his counterparts in Beijing, who some defense analysts believe remain overtly hostile to the Pentagon and its huge presence in East Asia. Unfortunately for Beijing, its game of hide the bacon in the last three months gives those critics more ammunition than they had before.