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外媒:中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年人在德国 社区6 H% f) d9 @/ t# I# l
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源:中新社 黄瑞" e% }* k0 G, }8 p" t
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8 i2 q$ X8 p6 b7 E1 u中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布,迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称,以现在的经济增长速度,中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间,赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。; m8 K" j* d% w
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华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析,尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本,成为世界第二大经济体,然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间,仍存在巨大的差距。
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题,并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说,当我们谈及中国经济时,应该避免高估中国的力量;中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡,若这些问题无法得到解决,中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。csuchen.de' l/ ?3 \- Q: q2 }
' V; w& |4 x% Y9 y3 z" I 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑:对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里,澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说,中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期,尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。
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金融时报表示,当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时,如何确立与其他地区之间的关系,对中国政府来说至关重要。csuchen.de( }) ]: C# a# t& C- \# ~+ f
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁,中国已开始强调“和平崛起”,并积极拓展文化交流领域。 `, j) }3 i+ N- ~5 S
7 g8 y2 D& Z) l+ q, e6 I! A) w 比较中国与日本的经济发展,金融时报指出,在更为重要的购买力方面,中国在近十年前已超过日本,而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本,则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关;为了说明这点,经济学家会告诉你,两个国家使用相同材料和人工,建造一样的房屋,日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍,原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。csuchen.de } |6 {4 K2 e. g$ V3 `7 { {
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0 s; Y$ H$ F' Y7 j% ZRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters
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5 L' z1 k! A" ~( e' u0 `csuchen.deBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ; z/ A' U. C8 o. |7 V [4 N
- L; H5 n4 Q, gA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency.
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism.
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 0 J6 m$ T* i8 v1 |* a$ J) R
+ h# Y& V6 Y3 `. O3 F9 ]6 ~人在德国 社区Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. csuchen.de8 i' S# \5 ?7 ?
: F8 q2 K0 Y" c+ }. P7 N, FFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 3 q3 |) T1 T2 G* v
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 8 V$ F, ]1 i2 I$ N
* F0 x$ g+ I) I7 ^7 v"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote.
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners.
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- [; [- z. @0 K0 x# a/ C- o人在德国 社区Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform.
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. R, h, o# p, D* ?! a) Z8 m人在德国 社区That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 人在德国 社区# j9 v% Z5 z6 @- P
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period".
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2 n9 K" O5 H# \2 A) _If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 7 i1 h0 Q v3 r, y* A- x3 z. h
" ^5 l1 |5 M/ s8 C1 AInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 7 H0 v* q5 C3 y& o% _8 R
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper.
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V* _: W7 [* m# k* W2 EGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures.
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys. |
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