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中国和许多阿拉伯国家一样，都是一党专政、贪腐且粮价高涨。但是专家认为，中国经济发展成就惊人，使出现革命性变动的压力大减。
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: C1 E; l1 @- {' K7 G; q4 _他们认为，曾经历文革的人很害怕社会混乱，而且中国人生活愈来愈好，即使是在现行政治体制下，这些因素都使动乱不太可能发生。
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3 \: F6 c$ y( p) J9 Q$ u' f中共也似乎从1989年的天安门广场民主示威学到教训，出现任何反对迹象立刻出手瓦解，不容其成气候。
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河边加州大学汉学家林培瑞(Perry Link)即表示，他不认为这波骨牌连锁效应，下一个会是中国，而且即使所有潜在反对势力联手，力量仍无法大到使中国成为下张骨牌。5 H+ S7 l7 A& O Y3 G1 U! G
* m# p" I7 E5 [6 `* @csuchen.de北京清华大学社会学家罗卡(Jean-Louis Rocca)说，中国的局面一点都不像中东及北非，不可能发生革命。他说，人民即使有什么不满，他们仍强力支持现在的政府，不希望政权更替。 ^. P8 ] W* v, O- u4 _7 M
9 ~7 `4 M3 Y; W+ ?! W3 Q+ x人在德国 社区清华大学政治学教授贝尔(Daniel Bell)也同意说，民众渴望社会改变，希望更开放、言论更自由、社会更公正等等，可是并不要「革命性变革」。
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; R( L5 y' S: r0 q9 f0 j* T" h% icsuchen.de这些专家也指出，另一个主要差别是北京政府是一党专政，不是王朝性质，也不是像埃及和利比亚由一个人独掌大权。
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不过，中国虽然可能成功的压制了20日的神秘「茉莉花革命」号召，可是人民并不相信政府会照顾他们的利益。csuchen.de4 V, Z# O. {6 S; Z
5 u* f/ m* G3 S. A: }$ j5 M) R) ^人在德国 社区中国领导阶层很擅长从其它威权政府的错误记取教训，并努力维持经济成长，可是一直拒绝开放政治体制，而愈来愈多人认为这种坚持「维持安定」的做法，反而加重社会问题，导致贪腐猖獗，贫富差距严重，也使民众对政府失去信任。
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尽管如此，中国观察家大多不认为中国目前有可能发生革命。加州克列蒙‧麦肯纳学院中国政治专家裴敏欣说：「中国目前的政权结构非常脆弱。现在还不到革命的时候，不过这并不表示以后不会出现大规模政治动乱。」2 I$ @* r) _2 i; M6 d( D
7 e* E' ^2 w2 @" r( E, X zcsuchen.de清华大学社会学家孙立平认为中国不会发生社会动乱，可是中国社会正迅速迈向灭亡，因为政府采用无情的压制手段，以保护既有利益。csuchen.de- Z* H/ ~* k/ P9 N1 w
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The leaders in Beijing have watched with concern as revolution swept through Tunisia and Egypt, and then spread to Bahrain, Yemen, Morocco and Libya. - Photo by AFP6 }1 L: A4 U' m
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Amid Mideast unrest, is China next?
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BEIJING: Like many Arab nations, China has one-party rule, corruption and soaring food prices – but experts say that its stunning record of economic success militates against pressure for revolutionary change.
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A fear of social chaos among a population who suffered through the Cultural Revolution and the feeling that there is a better future, even under the current political system, also make revolt unlikely, they say.
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: m/ ~8 h0 D* d, k! Z2 c9 u人在德国 社区A web campaign calling for demonstrations Sunday in 13 major Chinese cities similar to those that brought down the regimes in Egypt and Tunisia was met with a massive security clampdown and the arrest of several top activists.
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China’s ruling Communist party has seemingly learned the lessons of the 1989 Tiananmen Square democracy protests, which ended in a bloody crackdown that saw hundreds, if not thousands, killed by army fire in the heart of Beijing.* c7 R$ d7 i" X( _8 m
& k+ _2 p- \) {* n& ^: I. i6 Z“I don’t think China will be the next domino,” Perry Link, a China scholar at the University of California at Riverside, told AFP.
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% C/ ^' F( o, R2 ncsuchen.de“If you add together the parts of the population who are intimidated, who have been bought off, who have been indoctrinated or are in the dark, who would rebel but are not organised… there just isn’t a big enough part of the population left to make a domino.”: o8 F' B3 D" x# j# c
- y- l9 ~" h5 Hcsuchen.deThe leaders in Beijing have watched with concern as revolution swept through Tunisia and Egypt, and then spread to Bahrain, Yemen, Morocco and Libya, where dozens and maybe hundreds may have been killed in days of unrest.
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In response, the Communist government has detained up to 100 leading rights activists and lawyers, according to campaigners. It has also forcefully censored media reports about the unrest, and restricted Internet chat.+ B. w- V+ f; p* m0 e* G$ J
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Officials are especially wary of the power of social media – a major factor in the organisation of the Arab protests – as more than 450 million people are now online in China, or about a third of the population.
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) v! u2 _' j) [( n: n' U/ a" WJean-Louis Rocca, a sociologist at Tsinghua University in Beijing, said the situation in China does not closely resemble that in the Middle East and North Africa despite some similarities, making a revolution unlikely.: X( n# t [% W: [' Y! L1 _& K. |4 s
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“There is strong support for the regime here, even if the people are not happy. There is no will for regime change,” Rocca told AFP.9 |$ B+ y# Y( N3 Y
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Daniel Bell, a professor of political philosophy at Tsinghua, agreed, saying there was a “desire for social change – for more openness, more freedom of speech, more social justice and so on” but not for “revolutionary change”.
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The Global Times, a nationalistic sister newspaper to the Communist party mouthpiece, the People’s Daily, downplayed the protest call, likening the small turnout to “performance art” and saying the public did not back the movement.
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0 d/ T, M6 }- U“Neither throwing jasmine flowers in Beijing nor hyping social disruption in Western media will stir up public interest in overturning social progress,”the paper said in an editorial published Monday./ a/ b! V# R) [$ f5 V* q
3 ?; g) s. S4 m( t; aThanks to the country’s spectacular economic growth over the past 30 years, the Communist government has helped lift hundreds of millions of people out of abject poverty and sparked the emergence of a middle class with money to spend. t, q" }. H' f M5 \3 d
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While massive difficulties remain, “overall we don’t have a feeling of deep crisis in China comparable to that in Egypt or Tunisia,” Rocca said.
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, O+ J4 Q9 r0 p' B& V“There is neither despair nor an impression that there is no future,” he said, despite the high levels of unemployment, especially among young university graduates.
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The people, whose national pride stems from China’s re-emergence as a major world power, mainly want Beijing “to do what it has promised” – bridge the rich-poor divide, establish rule of law, and guarantee pensions and health care, Rocca said.
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For Bell, “there are opportunities in China for social mobility which were lacking in the Middle East… opportunities for entrepreneurs to succeed”.$ I5 f* j' i7 _* f3 z
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“The conditions are very different,” Bell says.
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. a/ j: h# K' o8 {& b" sExperts said another key difference is that while the government in Beijing is based on authoritarian one-party rule, it is not dynastic in nature, nor is it centred on one person, as in Egypt or Libya.
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' o% i( s' S! L" z/ u“Here, no one would be able to chant, ‘Out with Hu Jintao’,” Rocca said.人在德国 社区- \6 O+ z/ M' h8 z/ v2 L, |, ?
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Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a China expert at Hong Kong Baptist University, agreed, adding, “The leadership changes every 10 years. We’re not talking about a family that is getting rich.” Cabestan said as the standard of living improves, the population, especially the middle class, will want stability above all, although he warned localised protests could flare up in provincial capitals against rampant corruption.. U3 H" b$ C; ]0 F" J- d: S
" T$ Z+ \# Q$ j& Hcsuchen.de“It’s not the time to rock the boat,” Cabestan said. “Conditions are not ripe for direct confrontation (with the authorities). It’s probably too early for that right now.” – AFP |
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发表于 2011-2-24 17:37
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