[经济金融] 美国已准备好迎接中国廉价车?

克莱斯勒已经宣布将于2008年在南美和中美洲市场销售中国奇瑞汽车，2009年让奇瑞汽车进军美国市场。美国商业周刊指出，毫无疑问，中国汽车将会继续成为美国汽车市场一部分，但问题是何时以及美国消费者接受中国廉价车达到何种程度。! t0 O, `( l) s& {
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美国商业周刊网站7月9日发表题为《美国准备好迎接中国廉价车了么？》一文，对中国汽车进入美国市场所面临的困难及美国消费者能否接受它进行了分析。
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文章说，美国克莱斯勒公司已于7月5日宣布，它将于2008年在南美洲和中美洲销售中国奇瑞汽车公司生产的奇瑞汽车，并将最早于2009年让奇迹进入美国市场。奇瑞汽车预期售价约为1万美元，但在中国政府批准这项协议不久后，奇瑞公司总裁的说法却与克莱斯勒自相矛盾，称将于2008年在美国销售的奇瑞价格只有7000美元。这就是中国汽车工业的生活。

商业周刊说，毫无疑问，中国汽车业将会继续成为美国汽车市场的一部分，但现在的问题是何时，以及美国消费者接受中国廉价车将会达到何种程度。

一些分析家指出，近日，在产品抽查中所发生的一系列有问题的产品，已经让中国制造的商品形象遭遇一连串的严重挫折。有污染的宠物食品、假药和不合格的轮胎都已成为美国媒体的头条新闻。而中国的质量监督机构却报告称，2007年上半年只发现19.1%的国内消费品不合格。' ~# `1 D8 E* \  x9 d5 t) A5 q

美国独立营销顾问丹尼斯.基恩(Dennis Keene)指出，“在进口中国生产的物品方面，我们无法让时间倒流，但是如果消极头条新闻持续下去，那就会让每一个中国品牌都将遭遇困难，尤其是汽车。”
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一些从事进口中国产品和中国品牌产品的经销商们也对这个问题表示赞同。以合作创建美国斯巴鲁(Subaru)汽车和把Yugos引进美国而闻名的梦幻汽车创始人布里克林(Malcolm Bricklin)表示，“毫无疑问，我们现在所见到的几乎每周的头条新闻，将会让消费者更加难以接受(中国汽车)。”布里克林曾与奇瑞汽车达成协议，要让奇瑞汽车进入美国市场，但现在这交易已经流产，双方正在诉讼。
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与此同时，布里克林仍在寻找一个中国新伙伴，来为他的梦幻汽车生产混合动力的汽车，最后在美国市场销售。布里克林说，“现在看起来正是最好的市场机会”。布里克林把与中国汽车制造商打交道称为，是“一个迷人的但有时却令人沮丧的经历”。

商业周刊还首次披露说，甚至在奇瑞通过克莱斯勒获得进军美国的机会之前，亚利桑那州的中国汽车公司(China Motor)预计将于7月份展示其销售计划，这款由中国华晨汽车公司生产汽车的最早或在2008年秋季开始在美国市场销售。这家公司已经开始在底特律郊区接受美国安全的排放标准的检查。中国汽车公司负责人大卫.谢尔伯格(David Shelberg)表示，该公司一直处于雷达监控之中，这样做只是想让进口中国汽车的计划更加清楚。csuchen.de+ {3 |! v* C# |: I  W# q3 x1 k& `: {
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2007年5月,谢尔伯格的公司在纽约向汽车经销商和媒体就进口华晨汽车做了一个介绍，给人留下一个印象。美国汽车极端主义者网站(autoextremist.com)编辑彼得.德罗伦索(Peter DeLorenzo)说，“他们真的有自己的共同行动，看起来要比其它任何寻找让中国汽车进入美国市场的人都准备得更充分。”德洛伦索参加了由美国两家公司为华晨汽车召开的记者会，据悉华晨已经在欧洲推出它的产品。

不过，华晨汽车近日在德国的碰撞测试中遭到“毁灭般”的打击。德国汽车协会ADAC(All gemeiner Deutscher Automobil Club)，在其协会的网站上用动画方式刊登了中国汽车碰撞测试的场景。测试车辆是中国制中级轿车“Brilliance BS6”。接受ADAC碰撞测试之后，测试方指出“中国的汽车制造厂要想真正进入德国的汽车市场需要做的事情很多，现在连乘客保护性能方面都有问题。真的是个失败”。

此次测试条件完全按照NCAP标准进行。由于缺少安全气帘及不合理的人体工程学设计，驾驶员胸部及腹部的伤害已经超过临界值。正面40％重叠测试中，前机仓缺乏应有的强度，损坏部位及至驾驶仓，A柱向驾驶仓内溃缩了20厘米，踏板突出损害驾驶员，气囊爆出但因为驾驶舱整体形变导致完全失效。同时车门变形，无法顺利打开，如果发生在交通事故中，将会耽误掉宝贵的救援时间。

对模拟假人测量了对人体的冲击,除了右脚受到致命伤之外，其余部分在胸部、头部也受到转向系统的碰撞而造成巨大损害。而且因为驾驶舱变形，连右侧乘客也受到了不同程度的伤害。ADAC此次一同测试的还有现代的Sonata、起亚的Magentis以及Skoda的Superb。作为对比测试车型一同公布碰撞测试成绩,其他车型均在4星的等级，此次“Brilliance BS6”的1星评价可以说是完败了。有鉴于此，在德国国内对于中国进口车的销售要求重新评估的呼声也一下提高起来。
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商业周刊说，中国汽车公司预计在美国市场推出的一款轿车的售价约为2万美元。但这个价格，要想赢得美国消费者的认同可能有点太高了。美国TNS公司高级副总裁林肯.莫里赫(Lincoln Merrihew)指出，美国“消费者期待中国汽车制造商生产省油和廉价的汽车。如果这些关键的预期没有得以满足，那将成为一个大问题。”人在德国社区: R) b6 z* U5 I% o1 F: A/ w/ G! d
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克莱斯勒在中国建立一个汽车硬件设施的可行来源，无疑将会站立起来。克莱斯勒一直在设计的由中国生产的汽车，计划先拉丁美洲和北美洲销售。它是基于大黄蜂概念车，这款已经在汽车展亮过相的汽车，将会沿用道奇品牌，将会得到道奇经销商的服务。在这方面，它将同通用汽车公司在韩国大宇生产的雪佛兰Aveo没有差别，相对来说没有多少买主意识到这款汽车是由韩国厂家生产的。

对于那些了解韩国汽车制造的美国消费者来说，韩国的现代汽车和其附属的起亚汽车(Kia)近几年在产品质量已迈出一大步，并已提高的“韩国制造”的形象。美国独立营销顾问丹尼斯.基恩指出，中国的汽车还没有出现在美国,但他们的形象要比韩国汽车进入美国市场的形象粗糙。人在德国社区1 A& X0 e% c0 L  ^* \. d+ X
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克莱斯勒汽车公司，以及通用和福特汽车对中国汽车制造如此感兴趣的一个主要原因就是,他们没有找到现代和起亚正在美国市场出售的廉价汽车的很好的答案。还有，丰田汽车不久前推出了亚里斯(Yaris)阵容，本田公司已成功地推出了Fit类小型汽车，尼桑汽车也推出了其Versa小型汽车，以角逐价格在1.1万美元至1.3万美元的市场争夺战。
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商业周刊指出，把1.3万美元的市场留给韩国和日本，底特律已经放弃了很多的想建立品牌优先权的首次购车者。曾经有一段时间，很多底特律的总裁们曾相信，它们能够与韩国人展开价格竞争的最佳方式就是用美国的旧车，但那些日子已经过去。& l, }' c: {$ w: _+ C

美国的劳动力成本使底特律制造商不可能去生产那些零售价少于1.3万美元的小型轿车而且仍能获利。以前，通用汽车、福特还有克莱斯勒曾考虑过生产亏损的小型汽车，然后用卡车和多功能体育用车的高利润来弥补差额，但财政困境的三大公司现在早已脱离了这种思维。- c# V! a, s- N$ m# c6 Z
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与此同时,仍有更多的烟雾以从中国生产美国汽车的方式而冒出来。计划在美国市场推出中国汽车多不胜数，但真正的汽车购买却是另一回事。南京汽车集团2006年收购了英国罗孚集团，并宣布计划在美国的俄克拉荷马建立中国汽车生产基地，但现在这个项目已被推迟。6月份，相对较小的河北中兴汽车表示，它希望能能在2008年向美国出口三款汽车，并计划在墨西哥建立一个分厂。% D5 e  m( Y. S9 I0 Q  W5 q& h
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美国BelAir Partners创始人谢尔顿.桑德勒(Sheldon Sandler)说，进军美国市场和在这个市场推出一款全新汽车，并不象中国人想象的那么简单。但是许多计划在吸引交易商投资方面，却没有遇到多大的麻烦。
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谢尔伯顿表示，他的中国汽车公司并没有提出要经销商为经销权而支付预付款，但已有100多家经销商表示出很感兴趣。当初梦幻汽车的布里克林在与奇瑞汽车合作时，已经接受了交易商打出的大笔款项，他现在仍把持着这笔存款，并在中国寻找新的合作伙伴。人在德国社区+ j' Y9 D3 _, |) }
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商业周刊最后指出，在中国的商品形象在美国消费者中正日益恶化之际，为何美国的汽车经销商却急着出售中国轿车?桑德勒回答说，“因为他们害怕错过下一个丰田”。

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Is America Ready for Cheap Chinese Cars?
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Chinese-made autos are coming to the U.S., but recent quality concerns could make buyers choose safe cars over cheap ones
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Chrysler announced on July 5 that it will sell a small, inexpensive car built by Chinese automaker Chery Automobile in South and Central America as early as next year and in the U.S. by 2009. The car is expected to cost about $10,000. But shortly after the Chinese government approved the deal between the two companies, Chery's president contradicted Chrysler, saying the car would sell for about $7,000 and go on sale in the U.S. by next year. Such is life in the Chinese auto industry. csuchen.de4 d5 p9 Q- ]1 }' c

There is no question that Chinese automakers are going to be part of the U.S. auto scene. The question is when, and to what degree American consumers will accept cars made in China.
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A recent spate of recalls and tainted products from China has dealt a serious setback to the image of goods made in China, according to some analysts. Tainted pet food, fake pharmaceuticals, and substandard tires have all made headlines in the U.S. And China's own General Administration of Quality Supervision just reported that 19.1% of the products China manufactured for domestic consumption in the first half of 2007 were found to be substandard. "We can't turn the clock back on importing goods from China, but if the negative headlines persist, it will make it tough for every Chinese brand, and that especially goes for cars," says independent marketing consultant Dennis Keene. " }: R9 p# N5 S5 O0 P
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Some in the business of importing Chinese-made and Chinese-branded goods into the U.S. don't disagree. "No question what we are seeing now in the almost weekly headlines is going to make consumer acceptance tougher," says Malcolm Bricklin, founder of Visionary Vehicles. Bricklin is best known for co-founding Subaru of America and importing Yugos to the U.S. He has had a deal with Chery to bring the carmaker's vehicles to the U.S. But that deal is in tatters and the two sides are litigating.
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Already on the Road in Europe
Meantime, Bricklin is looking for a new Chinese partner to supply Chinese-built hybrid vehicles to his company for sale in the U.S. "That seems like the best market opportunity right now," says Bricklin, who calls doing business with the Chinese automakers "a fascinating but sometimes frustrating experience".+ }$ O6 }6 H4 U, Q5 x5 x

Even before Chery has a chance to sell cars through Chrysler, Scottsdale (Ariz.) distributor China Motor is expected to showcase its plans in Detroit this month to sell vehicles built by Chinese automaker Brilliance China Automotive as early as the fall of 2008. The company has been certifying Brilliance vehicles in suburban Detroit for U.S. safety and emission standards. China Motor chief David Shelburg says the company has been "flying under the radar," but is about to make its plans clear. $ ], }5 K- D# ^- ~6 e
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Last May, Shelburg's company made a presentation to dealers and members of the media in New York, and made an impression. "They really had their act together and look readier than anyone from China to start up in America," says Peter DeLorenzo, editor of Autoextremist.com, who attended the conference put on by auto dealer advisory and financing firm BelAir Partners. Brilliance has already launched its cars in Europe.
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China Motor is expected to launch with a sedan priced around $20,000. That price, though, could be too high to gain consumer acceptance. TNS Automotive of Marlborough, Mass., recently surveyed 2,500 American consumers on attitudes about Chinese cars and what points should be emphasized in marketing. According to the survey, one approach that stands out as a no-no is emphasizing anything about Chinese heritage or origin. Fifty-four percent said "do not emphasize" Chinese heritage, while 29% said "emphasize only a little." * T5 P0 v5 O0 b0 Y) H/ t# M* r) r

"Consumers are expecting Chinese cars to be fuel-efficient and inexpensive," said Lincoln Merrihew, senior vice-president at TNS. "If those key expectations are not met, it will be a big problem."

Chrysler will undoubtedly have a leg up in establishing China as a viable source of automotive hardware. It has been in on the design of the car it plans to launch in Latin America and North America. It is based on its Hornet concept car, which has been shown at auto shows, will carry the Dodge brand, and will be serviced by Dodge dealers. In that respect, it will be no different than General Motors sourcing its Chevy Aveo subcompact from its GM-Daewoo unit in South Korea. Relatively few Aveo buyers are even aware it is built in South Korea because of the Chevy branding, though the strides that Hyundai Motor and its affiliate Kia have made in quality have elevated the image of "Made in Korea" in recent years for those who actually do know where it's built.
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Giving Up on First-Time Car Buyers
"China isn't even here, and I'd say their image is roughly where South Korea's image was when they entered the U.S. market," says consultant Keene. 3 l" u! m, h1 W% {
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A big reason that Chrysler, as well as GM and Ford Motor, are so interested in China manufacturing is that they have no good answer for the inexpensive cars being sold by Hyundai and Kia in the U.S. Toyota Motor has recently launched the Yaris lineup. Honda has successfully introduced its Fit subcompact, and Nissan Motor has brought out its Versa subcompact to do battle in the $11,000 to $13,000 segment.

By leaving the sub-$13,000 market to the Koreans and Japanese, Detroit has been giving up a lot of first-time buyers who will establish brand preferences. There was a time when many Detroit executives believed they could combat Koreans best with American used cars, but those days are over.
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Dealers Lining Up to Sell Chinese Cars8 ~* d1 W# H5 D/ b0 _4 A# T9 T
Labor costs in the U.S. make it impossible for Detroit manufacturers to make small cars that retail for less than $13,000 per vehicle and still make a profit. It used to be that GM, Ford, and Chrysler were willing to make small cars at a per-unit loss, with sales of high profit trucks and sport-utility vehicles making up the difference. But the financial woes of all three companies have left that thinking by the side of the road.
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Meantime, there is still more smoke from China in the way of U.S.-bound cars, than fire. Plans to launch are plentiful. Real cars to buy are another matter. Nanjing Automotive Group last year acquired the rights to the MG brand from the British Rover Group and announced plans to build Chinese-engineered MG-branded vehicles in Oklahoma. But that project has been delayed. The U.S. manager of the operation left, and Nanjing managers have said in recent months that the whole scheme is in question. Last month, Hebei Zhongxing Automobile, a relatively minor Chinese automaker, said it hopes to export three vehicles to the U.S. in 2008 and that it plans to build a plant in Mexico.

Launching cars and whole new brands in the U.S. is not as easy as many of the Chinese think, says Sheldon Sandler, founder of BelAir Partners. But many of the schemes have had little trouble attracting dealer investment. Shelburg's China Motor hasn't taken dealer deposits for distribution rights, he says. But more than 100 have shown solid interest. Bricklin has escrowed big deposits from dealers from when he was going forward with Chery, and he is holding them while he looks for a new partner.

Why are dealers so anxious to sell Chinese cars when the image of the country is worsening with American consumers? "They are afraid of missing out on the next Toyota," says Sandler. Talk about a high bar to clear for the Chinese.

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