[经济金融] 商人需深思政治风险

一个月前，艾哈迈德．伊兹（Ahmed Ezz）是埃及最有权势的商人之一。他控制埃及约40％的钢铁生产、在执政党扮演主要角色，而最重要的是──他还是总统穆巴拉克（Hosni Mubarak）的儿子暨继位者贾迈勒（Gamal）的好友。

然而，今天他已经成为过气的昨日黄花。示威者视他为妖魔并烧毁他的公司总部。他正被调查中，他的资产被冻结，旅行的权利也被限制。扶植伊兹的西方公司浪费了他们的时间及金钱。所以《经济学人》杂志在2月11日发表了一篇名为〈经济之外，商人需要深思政治风险〉的文章，提醒商业界政治风险的问题。0 o" A. c5 D0 v
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新兴市场的风险8 G1 N3 C7 K7 s9 E7 e
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人们曾经一度认为全球化会使得政治的影响力减少。哈佛大学商学院的思想家莱维特（Theodore Levitt）就认为：“地球是圆的，但为了大多数的用途，容易把它视为平的。”日本的商业领袖大前研一也发表了《无国界世界》（The Borderless World）和《民族国家的终结》（The End of the Nation State）等书。像IBM及福特这种大公司，在努力创造全球化之际，就轻看了当地的经理人的重要性。

埃及的事件提醒我们这种无国界的说法是多么的愚蠢。美国前副总统钱尼（Dick Cheney）曾说：“上帝并不是只将石油和天然气存放在对美国友好的民主政权地区。”这句话可能需要加上：“上帝并不是让想拥有经济成长的国家都能获得经济成长。”
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正当企业界为新兴市场混乱无序的经济成长而手足舞蹈之际，千万别忘了这些市场也充斥着政治风险──薄弱的法律体系、随时变易的管理机构、不稳定的城市和脆弱的政权。

经济成为国家的政治工具
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越来越多的国家使用商业作为国家权力的工具，尤其是中国、苏俄及波斯湾国家。而且基于政治及经济的考量，有些世界最大的公司都是国营事业，其中包括大部分的大型石油公司。

中国更是个中翘楚，它使用国营公司获取世界的自然资源，且其份额越来越多。它也使用其国营企业以达到政治目地。当谷歌拒绝审查搜寻结果时，它被迫在香港重新设置其伺服器。四个力拓矿业集团（Rio Tinto）的业务主管，在可疑的情况下被囚禁。
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并不是只有中国有这种情形，英国石油公司（BP）与新伙伴俄罗斯国营石油公司共同合作在俄罗斯北极地区的发展，也因为阴暗的政治考虑而变得更复杂。
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西方政府严惩贪腐
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当政府越来越重视贪腐问题时，这些本国的西方国家也可能因为政治风险而遭受惨痛损失。奥巴马政府正以宗教式的热情在执行《外国贪腐行为法》（Foreign Corrupt Practices Act），甚至不惜使用打击组织犯罪专用的技术。英国政府正考虑严格的反贿赂措施。一些自认有遵守泰国或印尼当地法规的高级主管，可能会蓦然发现他们已经触犯了自己国家的法律了。8 \1 S$ V- A# K* Y& J8 }2 R
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严肃的看待政治
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公司如何在此环境中生存呢？无简单的规则。新兴市场有非常不同的政治制度。在巴西，你需要了解国会的多党联盟；在中国，你需要通晓共产党权力的动态；在沙乌地阿拉伯，你需要了解领导的家庭内部关系。再加上地方的政治生态，情况就更复杂了。人在德国社区/ I) O  A6 W* ]; R( B

最重要是：要严肃的看待政治。石油及矿产公司一向如此。荷兰皇家壳牌石油公司（Royal Dutch Shell）尽管处在奈吉利亚这样一个危险易变的环境之下，却已经在奈国经营获利的生意超过50年。在新经济体中发展的公司往往比较天真。埃及的危机显示了他们无法避免被牵连于政治的战场中，即使这个战场现在透过网路开打。君不见，连谷歌的埃及主管戈宁（Wael Ghonim）也是一个政治活跃分子。
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深入认清当地局势1 I" M- B, e) X* J8 w8 |
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公司可以花钱向谘商公司谘询关于政治风险的意见，诸如英国的控制风险（Control Risks）智库、美国的欧亚集团（Eurasia Group）、《经济学人》的姊妹组织经济学人信息部（Economist Intelligence Unit）都提供政治风险的谘询服务。欧亚集团的总裁伊恩布雷默（Ian Bremmer）及在这个领域有名望的大师也在这个主题上写过一些煽动性的书籍。4 U, Q: N' L, M! V3 E( E
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但是公司需要的不仅仅是花钱购买忠告，他们需要将更多的重点放在对当地的认识上：许多执着于全球化的公司，将来可能会后悔轻看了当地的经理人。他们也需要不被稳定的投资表象所迷惑。埃及快速倒塌的专制应该给那些在中国──而非印度──投下大赌注的公司一些深思。毕竟，印度虽然混乱，但却是民主的；中国看起来有序，但那只是表象。4 S; O: p! f9 O6 S  ~& \% k6 ~: Z

复杂的政治经济学; f/ ~. _  F/ C  t4 \

一些技巧已经证明特别的成功。其中一个即分散风险（diversifying）的营运。克莱斯勒就因此逃过秘鲁国有化的影响，因为它的当地工厂只制造组装汽车的一半零组件。另一个是培养深厚的本土渊源。在过去多年以来，壳牌石油已经训练并雇用许多管理奈吉利亚石油工业的人。第三是共同承担风险。越来越多的公司与其他非政府组织和政府机构的企业形成复杂的联盟。) t. B" i/ G. V

然而，所有这些技巧都有其致命的弱点。当重要的工厂倒闭之际，全球化的营运可能会让风险扩散，而不是隔离；拥抱地方政权可能使你成为仇恨的对象，就像壳牌石油在奈吉利亚遇到的一样；与你无法完全掌控制的当地人结盟，可能会被控以贪污的罪名。最后，只能说：“政治经济学”要比它的后代弟子“现代经济学”更复杂了。
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Businesspeople need to think harder about political risk  Feb 10th 2011
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A MONTH ago Ahmed Ezz was one of the most powerful businesspeople in Egypt. He controlled about 40% of the country’s steel production, played a leading role in the ruling party and, most important of all, was a bosom buddy of Hosni Mubarak’s son and heir apparent, Gamal.

Today he is a has-been. Protesters have demonised him and torched his company headquarters. The old guard has dumped him as a liability. He is under investigation, his assets have been frozen and his right to travel has been restricted. Western companies that cultivated Mr Ezz wasted their time and money.人在德国社区/ _. j% h: U9 |/ F
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It was once regarded as axiomatic that globalisation would marginalise politics. Theodore Levitt, one of Harvard Business School’s leading thinkers, argued that “the Earth is round but, for most purposes, it’s sensible to treat it as flat”. Kenichi Ohmae, a Japanese business guru, published “The Borderless World” and “The End of the Nation State”. Giant companies such as IBM and Ford played down the importance of country managers in their efforts to create globally integrated behemoths.

The events in Egypt are a reminder of how foolish such “borderless” thinking can be. Dick Cheney once remarked, “The Good Lord didn’t see fit to put oil and gas only where there are democratically elected regimes friendly to the United States.” It might be added that the Good Lord did not see fit to put economic growth in equally desirable places. The corporate world is rightly excited by the pell-mell growth in emerging markets, but these are rife with political risks—weak legal systems, makeshift institutions, volatile cities and fragile regimes.

A growing number of countries, most notably China but also Russia and the Gulf states, are using business as an instrument of state power. And some of the world’s biggest companies, including most of the largest oil firms, are state-run, driven by political as much as economic considerations.
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China is the leading offender, using state companies to snap up a growing share of the world’s natural resources. It is also using its state-industrial complex to pursue political goals. Google was forced to re-route its servers when it refused to censor e-mails. Four Rio Tinto executives were imprisoned in dubious circumstances. China is not alone: BP’s new partnership with Rosneft, Russia’s state-controlled oil giant, to develop Russia’s Arctic region is complicated by murky political considerations.人在德国社区# \" J5 z& o: z9 ^

Political risks can also bite Western companies at home, where governments are increasingly vigilant about corruption. The Obama administration is enforcing the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act with an evangelical zeal—and employing techniques once reserved for fighting organised crime. The British government is introducing tough anti-bribery measures. Executives who adopt what they regard as “local” rules in Thailand or Indonesia can find themselves facing prison sentences back home.人在德国社区/ g( v. F5 i7 t" J

How do companies cope? There are no simple rules. Countries that are cavalierly lumped together as emerging markets have very different political regimes. In Brazil you need to understand Congress’s multi-party alliances; in China the power dynamics of the Communist Party; in Saudi Arabia the internal relations of the ruling family. Local politics add yet more complexity.

The most important advice is to take politics seriously. Oil and mining companies have always done this. Royal Dutch Shell has run a profitable business in Nigeria for more than 50 years despite a dangerous and volatile environment. “New economy” companies have tended to be much more naive. The Egyptian crisis demonstrates that they cannot avoid being caught up in political battles which are now fought over the internet. A Google executive in the region, Wael Ghonim, also doubled as a leading political activist.+ {) U7 n/ a! x" S
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A bit of help, @  I, ?( u' m1 G
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Companies can buy advice from political-risk consultancies such as Control Risks, a British outfit, or Eurasia Group, an American one, or various niche consultancies set up by political bigwigs, from Henry Kissinger on down, and ex-ambassadors. (Full disclosure: the Economist Intelligence Unit, a sister organisation of The Economist, also offers advice on political risk.) Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group and a rising guru in the area, has written some provocative books on the subject.4 f% \, o# X$ B6 q8 m4 x, J
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But companies need to go further than just buying advice. They need to put more emphasis on local knowledge: many globalisation-obsessed companies may come to regret the fashion for downgrading country managers. They also need to be less impressed by the appearance of stability. The rapid collapse of Egypt’s autocracy should be food for thought for companies that have bet big on China (with its appearance of order) rather than India (with its messy democracy).csuchen.de% I, P; j4 q- X" y
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Some techniques have proved particularly successful. One is diversifying operations. Chrysler escaped a wave of nationalisation in Peru because its local factory manufactured only half the components needed to assemble a car. Another is putting down deep local roots. Over the years Shell has trained and employed many of the people who regulate Nigeria’s oil industry. A third is sharing risks. A growing number of companies form complex alliances with other firms, NGOs and government bodies.9 s; G4 O8 F# t
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Yet all these techniques come with a sting in the tail. Creating global operations may spread risks rather than isolating them when a vital factory is closed. Cuddling up to the local regime may turn you into an object of hatred, as Shell has discovered in Nigeria. Weaving alliances with local people you cannot fully control may expose you to charges of corruption. It turns out that political economy is a much more complicated subject than its trendy modern offspring, economics.

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Beyond economics.jpg

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当新兴经济市场一片繁荣表象之际，埃及事件及其引发的后续波涛，提醒了汲汲于全球化经营的业主们：政治风险可能是获利与否的最大变因

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