[国际新闻] 庆祝美国时代终结的4大理由

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国际货币基金组织近日预测，中国经济将在2016年超越美国，首次为经济的“美国时代”终结设下了一个日期。对此，美国各界陷入了充斥着“悲情”意味的讨论，但是近日美国媒体表示，或许换一种思维方式，中国超越美国对于后者来说，也有着预料之中的好处。
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一直以来，美国都在长时间内处于世界经济的顶峰。美国从第二次世界大战之后，就成为了世界经济的主导力量，而在之后的几十年中，繁荣似乎成为了美国与生俱来的权力。但是每一个冠军都会迟早遭受失败，美国已经开始看到其老龄化的、失衡的重量。类似中国、印度和巴西这样的发展中国家似乎更好的适应了全球经济的衰退，这些国家目前以较之美国三倍、甚至四倍的速度发展着。9 D; v+ V/ f: L- S

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美国媒体认为，这一现象听起来令人感到担忧，广泛发布的“美国时代终结论”也似乎刺痛了美国的某一根神经。但是与此同时，也存在着另外一种想法，即或许当中国最终真正超越美国之后，反而是对美国有利的。以下为解释这一想法的四个理由：
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1. 美国需要感受失败心态。+ w/ [3 d: y# v: r

美国就像是一个生活在高山顶上，摇摇欲坠的大楼之中的富有、但却不健全的家庭。美国人一直生活在过去，失去了努力工作，以创造美好生活的习惯。美国的邻居们天天听着美国民众的争吵，关注着美国看起来极其破旧的财富。美国现在更多的关注于一些娱乐和琐事。

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而在经济领域，这导致了美国肆意的赤字花费，对于竞选献金的不可负担的赠予，被胜任一筹的心胸狭窄的政治削弱的全球野心。美国人民不现实的妄想着，一个趋向于破产的政府将继续照顾他们。每个人都不希望由于公众而牺牲自我，每一个呼喊着“小政府”计划的人，基本都是希望对除了自己之外的人实施相对更小的政府计划。

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当美国开始为一些清晰而公正的目标奋斗的时候，美国有着很好的一个反弹记录。美国依然是一个拥有丰富资源的富足国家，只是目前没有得以很好的利用。如果滑落到世界第二的位置，能够令美国产生一种共同的使命感，给予美国人民团结在一起的理由的话，将可能会产生一种新的觉醒，解决美国目前面临的问题。

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2. 快速下滑强于缓慢衰落。: }) T. @; p7 Q$ q# g
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事实上，美国在许多领域早已经失去了世界第一的头衔。在发达国家中，美国的贫困率是最糟糕的，美国的教育成绩已经在数年中保持中等，在医改问题上，美国花费了超过世界任何国家的资金，但是却仅仅得到了低于发达国家平均寿命的现实。所谓强势的“世界第一“的口号，仅仅是一厢情愿的想法，而事实已经发生了改变。

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尽管这样，美国依然不否认自己在世界上的影响力，以及控制关乎美国国家或者个人利益的事务的能力。就业就是非常好的一个例子：美国政府花费了数万亿的刺激资金，但是却对加速就业机会的创造没有任何效果。而如果在其他国家，相信更小的政府援助将会获得更强劲的效果。

如果不再是世界第一了，那么就成为了一个不可否认的标志，即美国真的实力下降了。但是如果这真的发生的话，美国人可能也会欺骗自己，想象如果美国依然是世界最大经济体的话，肯定是非常健康的。2 L* S" b* n2 P2 X+ [1 o5 q' s+ [' k
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3. 或会促使政治行动以经济目的为优先标准。csuchen.de* m% u) B$ R' B' A1 d& h9 _2 t% @
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尽管有着很强烈的呼吁，美国的政客们依然没有在缩小政府赤字，减少美国14万亿美元的债务上作出实质的努力。部分原因是由于世界其他各国依然在以极低的利息向美国借钱，而这种嗜好最终变成了美国的债务。目前有迹象表明这一情况将在不久的未来有所改变，但是分析人士认为，迫使政客们作出削减珍爱项目的预算，向选民征收更高的税收等举措，依然存在巨大的风险。

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目前，中国建立了世界航最先进的基础设施，在如汽车电池和下一代太阳能板等重要技术上建立了重要领导层，但是美国却没有看出有任何确保国家经济优先性的紧急心态，或许美国经济的衰退，将变成一个不可忽视的挫折，方能引起美国政客们的关注。) i( `! I5 o7 T1 e$ r4 O: ^) Y3 E

4. 体会小经济体也可繁荣的经历。
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美国一直误以为只有大的经济体才算是成功的，这是完全错误的，在英国Legatum研究所的繁荣指数榜单上，挪威、丹麦、芬兰这些国家位列榜首，紧随其后的是一些远远小于美国的经济体国家。这些国家都在国防开支上花费很少，因为这些国家不需要去全世界巡逻。这些国家非常乐意看到其他国家派遣国际警察，而他们则呆在家中，享受高品质的生活。
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当然，在这方面，美国并不孤单。作为世界第二大经济体的中国，在这个繁荣指数榜上，也仅仅位列第58位。随着其繁荣程度的上升，相信中国的排名将会有所上升。但是随着其开始在世界的每一个角落中发挥自己的力量，中国也必定会花费很大的收入在军队和地缘政治基础设施上。美国应该仔细想想，或许应该让这样的事情发生。
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Age Of America Nears End
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4 Reasons To Cheer When China Overtakes America

As many athletes know, it can be harder to stay on top than to get there in the first place.
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America has had a lengthy and rewarding tenure at the top. The United States emerged from World War II as the world's dominant economic power, and for the next several decades prosperity became an American birthright. We still have the world's biggest and most powerful economy, with investors flocking to the dollar during the recent financial crisis and the Federal Reserve pursuing America-first policies that the rest of the world can only acquiesce to.csuchen.de( m, f& ~- c8 u% K  ^
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But every champion suffers defeat sooner or later, and the United States is starting to look like an aging, off-balance heavyweight. Developing countries like China, India, and Brazil weathered the global recession far better and they're now growing at two or three times the rate of the United States. Washington is also the most profligate capital among developed countries, with a shocking amount of debt and no plan to do anything about it. Despite massive amounts of government aid, more than half of all Americans tell Gallup that the economy is still in a recession—or a depression. Median incomes are falling, with living standards likely to follow. The dollar has drifted close to all-time lows against other major currencies. And by most projections, it could be another four or five years before employment is back to levels deemed normal.  m! x  @# N( S  A
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Journalist Brett Arends encapsulated this sense of decline recently by arguing that the "age of America" will end in 2016. He based his claim on projections from the International Monetary Fund showing that under one measure of GDP, called purchasing power parity, China would account for about 18 percent of world economic output in 2016, while the United States would account for just 17.7 percent—the lowest level in decades. The U.S. economy would still be larger than China's in nominal terms, and far more productive when measured in output per capita. But Arends argues that the measure he examined gives a more accurate picture of real economic power, since it strips away distortions caused by China's deliberate undervaluing of its currency and other factors.

One could quibble with his reasoning, but there's no denying that China, which recently eclipsed Japan to become the world's second-largest economy, is a rapidly rising power destined to displace the U.S. economy eventually, if only because of its sheer size. The implications are sobering. China is a proud and aggressive country controlled by communist-capitalists who have learned to harness free enterprise to pursue state interests. Sooner or later, it will outspend the United States on defense and perhaps flex its military muscle in confrontational ways. It could also tilt world markets in its direction and siphon off investment from the West, which could be especially destabilizing for nations like the United States that are overdependent on debt.

It sounds scary, and the wide distribution of Arends' story suggests that it struck a nerve. But here's another idea: Maybe it will be good for us when China finally overtakes America. Here are four reasons why:  n  q3 F% t! q- ], \$ H9 |8 v
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We need an underdog mentality. America is like the rich, dysfunctional family that lives in the ramshackle mansion at the top of the hill. We're living off of our past and have lost the habit of working hard to earn our livelihood. The neighbors hear us arguing all the time and notice that the property is looking a little shabby. We seem more fixated on amusements and trivial problems than on keeping our house in order.

In economic terms, this plays out in rampant deficit spending, unaffordable giveaways to favored campaign contributors, and grandiose global ambitions undermined by small-minded political one-upmanship. Ordinary citizens are guilty, too, because they have wildly unrealistic expectations that a government veering toward insolvency will continue to take care of them. Nobody wants to sacrifice for the common good, and cries for "smaller government" basically mean smaller government for everybody else but me.) q9 a3 u+ ?& {# |2 ~; Y
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America has a good record of bouncing back when it's fighting for something that's clear and just. We remain a rich country with extraordinary resources that we're just not using very well right now. If falling to No. 2 would generate a common sense of purpose and give Americans something to rally around, it might help generate the kind of determination to solve problems that no blue-ribbon commission or bipartisan study group can generate., `, w' a( U& Z0 k
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A quick descent would be better than a slow decline. We stopped being No. 1 in a lot of things some time ago—or simply never were. The U.S. poverty rate is close to the worst among developed nations. Our education scores have been middling for years. The Legatum Institute's annual global prosperity index ranks the United States 10th. On healthcare, we spend far more than any nation on earth but have below-average life expectancy for a developed country, an alarming obesity rate and millions who can't even afford healthcare. The jingoistic chant of "We're No. 1!" is usually wishful thinking, because it's hard to find something we are actually No. 1 at.

Yet we're still in denial about the influence we have around the world and our ability to control events we deem in our national (or personal) interest. Jobs are a good example: Trillions of dollars in government stimulus have done little or nothing to speed job creation, which is more robust in other countries where it's happening with far less government aid. If the U.S. economy were no longer the world's biggest, it would be an undeniable sign that decline is real. But until that happens, we're likely to fool ourselves into the thinking that if it's the world biggest economy, it must be healthy enough.
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It might force action on economic priorities. Despite a lot of jawboning, politicians have done virtually nothing to reduce the government's gaping deficits or pay down America's $14 trillion debt. Part of the reason is that the rest of the world keeps lending Uncle Sam money at irresistibly low interest rates, prolonging the addiction to debt. There are signs this may change in the near future, but some analysts think it will take a genuine crisis to force politicians to make the deeply unpopular moves—including spending cuts in cherished programs and higher taxes on most voters—that it's going to take to solve this national problem.% N$ v+ ^3 G+ ~) I
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Legislators are also dithering on a broad range of other important economic issues. Tech firms complain that they can't get enough U.S.-based engineers, partly because foreigners who come to the United States to attend college or grad school can't get visas to stay after they graduate. So they go back home and work for companies there, or start their own firms. This seems like a no-brainer to fix, yet politically it gets conflated with the gridlock over illegal immigration, which is something altogether different. The United States is also standing by while China builds the world's most modern infrastructure and establishes leadership in important technologies like electric batteries for cars and next-generation solar panels. There's no sense of urgency in Washington about assuring the nation's economic primacy. Maybe a drop in America's economic rank would be the kind of impossible-to-ignore setback that it takes to get politicians' attention.0 Z) c  g7 u; S3 r9 c6 E
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You can be small and prosperous, too. We mistakenly think that only a big economy can be a successful one. False. In the Legatum Institute's prosperity index, for instance, Norway, Denmark, and Finland rank at the top, followed by a bunch of other countries with far smaller economies than the United States. Most of them spend relatively little on defense, because they're not out patrolling the whole world, and they seem quite content to let others set global policies while they simply stay home and enjoy high standards of living. The trick, of course, is aligning your national ambitions with your capabilities, which is where the United States has fallen out of sync.csuchen.de& ]5 }% M: o: r+ D4 ?- }/ z
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We're not the only ones. China, with the second-largest economy in the world, ranks 58th on the prosperity index. Its ranking will probably improve as it gets wealthier, but China will also devote a lot more of its income to an expensive military and to geopolitical infrastructure as it starts to throw its weight around in every quarter of the world. Come to think of it, maybe we should let them.

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