[经济金融] 美报:亚洲推动世界经济 中国正在走二战后德国老路

日月光

美国《国际先驱论坛报》23日刊登一篇署名文章说，随着中国经济飞速发展，预计今年亚洲国家将为世界经济增长提供最大的推动力，今年世界经济将实现4.9%的增长率。
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    这家美国报纸这样描绘近10年来亚洲经济两重天的变化：十年前，亚洲大多数国家都笼罩在金融危机的阴影下；五年前，亚洲国家和世界其他地区一样，因为信息技术泡沫破裂和美国经济衰退而一筹莫展。但步入2007年，亚洲的天空中再难找到任何阴霾。
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8 C2 y4 A' W5 H2 I$ I8 E/ r7 }    文章称，很多经济学家还在为美国经济是否会走下坡路甚至陷入衰退而争论不休，与此同时，亚洲经济却一路高歌猛进，似乎必定会成为今年(甚至更长时间内)世界经济增长的主要发动机。这反映出亚洲经济正迅速迈向成熟，已经能靠自己的力量站稳脚跟了，即使美国经济出现衰退，它也能自力更生。长期以来，美国一直是亚洲国家的主要出口市场。 9 y/ r# {( L& V8 ~& f4 e, p# G
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    新加坡巴克莱资金公司的亚洲经济问题专家彼得·雷德沃德说：“过去十年来亚洲经历的那种经济下滑今年似乎不太可能发生。如今，亚洲的经济增长结构和以前有很大不同。” 9 i  v* F1 _( e$ V+ L
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    一些经济学家甚至认为，亚洲经济的蓬勃发展很可能会改变现有的世界经济秩序。   德意志银行的经济学家托马斯·迈尔说：“最终很可能出现大西洋经济圈和太平洋经济圈。欧洲仍然离不开美国，但换成亚洲，这种情况还会持续多久呢？” / k  Z, L' U$ z
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    文章认为，中国正迅速成为亚洲的经济中心，周围是泰国、印尼之类的较小经济体。随着时间的推移，美国市场对世界经济增长的影响将越来越小。 4 f) z' e& o& h7 ?) }/ n' u9 V
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    国际货币基金组织估计，今年世界经济将实现4.9%的增长率，比2006年的5.1%略有下降。该组织预计，2007年美国和欧元区将维持2%-3%的经济增长率，除日本以外亚洲各国的经济增长率会超过美欧，达到4.4%。 / r% L& a" r1 ^& R- j) E) j7 Z
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    但经济学家们认为，虽然东南亚国家的经济实力日益增强，假如美国经济出现下滑，亚洲国家的经济增长也会受到限制。他们认为，一旦美国经济出现严重下滑——很可能伴随着美元贬值——亚洲及世界其他地区的经济增长也会受影响。 ' g/ Y. h& E* w% [( L/ w( d) E: v! r
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    文章称，阻止亚洲经济进一步脱离美国的障碍很明显。只要中国仍然依靠出口来促进经济增长，忽视家庭支出和国内企业投资等影响国内需求的因素，那么它就不能靠自己的力量拉动亚洲经济增长。对亚洲经济来说，中国国内消费能否持续增长是一个关键因素。
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    二战后经济遭受重创的德国采用美国推行的金本位制，开始长达20年的出口推动型经济扩张。到20世纪60年代末，德国便陷入困境：工资日益上涨使得通货膨胀抬头，然后经济衰退便开始了。文章援引德意志银行的一位官员报道：“人民币以优势汇率盯住美元再现了这种情况，中国正在走二战后德国的老路。”
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The rising stars of Asia can't carry whole show# ~! g: |6 t0 v7 O& Y) }
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FRANKFURT: Ten years ago, much of Asia was wracked by a financial crisis that rippled through the global economy. Five years ago, the region suffered along with the rest of the globe under the weight of the technology bubble's collapse and a sharp recession in the United States.
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But as 2007 kicks off, it is hard to find a cloud in the Asian sky. In fact, with a booming Chinese economy at their core, Asian economies are forecast to provide the biggest share of world economic growth this year.
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As economists debate whether the United States may slow sharply or even tip into recession, Asia looks set to be the main driver of growth in the world economy in the coming year — and possibly longer.3 @  D3 s' @7 {4 C

' x& q% @7 F# v- TThe strength reflects a regional economy that has matured rapidly to the point where it can stand on its own even if the United States — long a key export markets — stumbles.人在德国 社区1 \  b; ~$ H/ L) ?
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"The kind of slowdown that Asia has typically experienced in the last decade is unlikely to happen this year," said Peter Redward, head of Asia research for Barclays Capital in Singapore. "The structure of growth is very different than it has been in the past."- `" }, n6 k4 L. x, z
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The outlook hints at what some economists believe may increasingly come to define a new world economic order.
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: c  U0 k7 [" b0 t4 O"We may well end up with an Atlantic business cycle and a Pacific business cycle," said Thomas Mayer, chief Europe economist at Deutsche Bank in London. "Europe is still tied into the United States, but how long will that be the case with Asia?"csuchen.de- x' z, t0 s" D* L: |9 L
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So rapidly is China becoming a hub around which smaller economies like Thailand and Indonesia turn that the American market, whether thriving or waning, may carry less weight as an economic driver over time.( H: Q+ v/ d& S0 b- k- T
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As decision makers gather for the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this "shifting power equation" is increasingly evident, economists say.csuchen.de$ z7 k- y  R  n: @6 |4 Q8 L

& Q& M* r+ L- eThis year, Asia will be the largest contributor to global output, at about $1 trillion in nominal terms, Redward said. The American economy will churn out an additional $750 billion and Europe somewhat less than that.
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- \0 t; Z" a8 I( ZAccording to the International Monetary Fund, the global economy will expand at a brisk 4.9 percent, down only slightly from 5.1 percent in 2006. Moderate growth of between 2 percent and 3 percent is expected in the United States and the 13-country euro area. The economies of Asia excluding Japan are projected to outstrip them all with a robust expansion of 4.4 percent.人在德国 社区$ |0 e7 t! ^% k" G2 M+ }0 P
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Yet even as the Southeast Asian trading bloc gains muscle, there are limits to how strong the region can become if the United States slows. With economies knit together by complex global supply chains, outsourcing of data processing and customer service tasks, a severe downturn in the United States — possibly accompanied by a plunging dollar — would hit growth in Asia and elsewhere.csuchen.de1 T( k9 C, y0 B( i) E4 q
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"If the U.S. went through a dramatic slowdown, it would be hard for the world to ignore it," said Sun Bae Kim, an Asia economist with Goldman Sachs. "But if the U.S. settles into mediocre growth, Asia will be able to manage that quite well."0 s8 C5 k! V+ l: j: s
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The barrier to greater Asian independence from the U.S. economy is fairly clear. Economists say that as long as China relies on exports to fuel its economy and neglects the components of domestic demand — household spending, investment by companies at home — that characterize modern economies like the United States, Germany and Japan, it cannot drive Asian growth on its own. China's currency policy is part of this equation. As long as the yuan remains pegged to the U.S. dollar, the mild flexibility that Beijing introduced in 2005 will keep its exports cheap in the American market. But a sustained pickup in Chinese consumption will be the key to any Asian growth cycle, and that is approaching slowly, though faster than might have been expected a decade ago.
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* v9 W" I( m& w/ P. [# x( d8 R+ Y"Patience is called for — structural rebalancing toward consumption involves reforms that promote more equality in income and wealth distribution," Denise Yam, Asia economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a recent paper on the subject. "It could be several years before such reforms transform China into a promising consumer market."人在德国 社区: U8 j/ G; y  a  r) L7 u, t
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As China moves toward less export- dependent growth, it is following in the footsteps of another major economy, Germany, which became the locomotive of Europe as China is becoming for Asia today.' R; o8 r3 C4 m* L" K

" t& G4 T4 N% z5 @# W6 {/ scsuchen.deA devastated nation after World War II, Germany latched onto the U.S.-enforced gold standard — the Bretton Woods system — and kicked off two decades of export-driven expansion as spending on the Korean War in the 1950s helped to restart factories across Europe.人在德国 社区) o( C" o  \; {/ `

8 ?% C# Z7 F" e% J/ j" AGermany bogged down in the late 1960s, when rising wages fired inflation before a nasty recession began. But by then, the German experience had a name that is not far from describing today's China: the Wirtschaftswunder, or economic miracle.
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"The Chinese recreated Bretton Woods by tying to the U.S. dollar at a competitive rate," Mayer of Deutsche Bank said, "and sailing the same way as Germany did after World War II."