[经济金融] 印度希望模仿中国追赶中国

Thursday, Jan. 25, 2007

印度和中国之间的竞争也许是不可避免的。这两位亚洲的邻居各自都有超过10亿的人口，同时他们又都正在经历经济的高速增长。两者也都被渲染为未来的超级大国，当然比较而言，目前的中国比印度似乎更加接近于达到这种状况。不过两个国家也有非常不一样的地方：一个是一党专制的国家；另一个，是充满瑕疵但功能一直在运作的民主体制。这些区别，对两国的增长方式产生了巨大影响。简单打个比方，假如要建一条新的高速公路，在中国，统治者们无须左顾右盼，马上动手去做好了；但是在印度，事情就要复杂多了。而在印度这种“吵吵嚷嚷的”民主环境和土地私有制度下，这或许是不可避免的。4 A4 ]" G$ H$ Z9 z2 o
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这种复杂性表现的一个最近例子，就是上周执政的国大党的一个内部报告泄漏给了印度媒体所引发的风波。该报告称，政府对经济特区的政策可能在未来影响选举国大党的选票，这种经济特区的政策包括对外国投资给以税收优惠、提供良好的基础设施和其他的利益。
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  初看起来，印度创设经济特区不会引发太多的争论。许多的发展中国家都在创始和利用这种性质的“飞地”来吸引外国投资和鼓励本国制造业的发展。事实上，印度在亚洲国家中是第一个建立经济发展“飞地”的国家。在1960年代中期，印度就在她的古加拉特邦创立了一个“出口加工区”。但是在过去的几年里，印度一直充当着追赶中国的角色，中国就是成功地利用了经济特区的作用。

  中国利用经济特区启动了她在30年前几乎是不可思议的经济发展。目前印度所吸引的外国直接投资仅相当于中国的10％(虽然两种不同的计算投资额方式有不同)，印度希望尽快缩小这个差距。去年初，印度的国会主导下，通过一项《经济特区法》，向外国投资者提供进一步的优惠，旨在加速印度经济发展、尤其是其制造业的发展。经济特区享受的特权包括：5年的全额免税，5年的50％免税，而对于利润再投资，还将再度给予5年的税收优惠。此后，数以百计的地方申请设立经济特区，中央几乎平均每天批准一个经济特区，至今全国批准了270多个经济特区。
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外界普遍认为，如此巨大的数字绝不是政策的成功，而是表明这一重大政策项目已出现严重问题。
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  就在印度希望跑步进入“经济特区时代”时，新的麻烦出现了。其中最大的麻烦就是征地。大批土地被廉价征用，失地农民得不到应有的补偿。由此引发的农民与征地官员之间的冲突事件不断。不久前，印度西孟加拉邦东米德纳帕地区政府官员在征用土地计划建经济特区时，与农民发生冲突，导致6人死亡，25人受伤。有分析指出，印度的经济特区是官商勾结盘剥农民的“圈地运动”。印度的问题是，许多的经济特区都是就在原来的主要农业用地上，少数的农业土地的所有者为自己的土地卖出了高价钱而欢欣鼓舞，而大多数的贫苦农民和农工反对将他们的生计被从背后强行剥夺一空。反对设立经济特区的呼声愈来愈高，考虑到大多数印度人仍然居住市区以外的地方，那里往往会成为经济特区，国会议员们和希望获得农民选票的政党不得不考虑，大量创设经济特区所可能带来的政治后果：失去农民的选票。3 |4 |% C# L( r( u/ ?7 U3 E

在中国，情况不一样，虽然中国当局已注意到了社会不稳定中贫困农民的危险反弹，但是，中国的当权者们却无须担心它对选举和自己得票多少的影响。但是，这在印度行不通。印度的经济分析师ParanjoyGuhaThakurta说：对于政客们来说，“选票是一个更为即时、更为强大的威胁，即使还不是大选在即,但是印度人可以对议员们施压，撤换那些他们不喜欢的行政官员。但是在中国这样的一党制国家，要想这样做就不容易了。”csuchen.de( f) W9 Q# e6 N& k4 x
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民主的难题：众说纷纭
事实上，在印度，反对经济特区的，不仅是政客担心的农民，而且还有各种反对者，包括自由市场的改革派的反对。印度的工业和商业部推经济特区最积极，而财政部、中央银行和左派政党等都持强烈反对态度。
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  批评者说，比起中国，印度的许多经济特区都太小，从长远来看，不太可能帮助制造企业获得规模效应，因为267个经济特区项目中，有133个项目占地不足1平方公里。这些经济特区的平均面积仅为4.2平方公里。而且5年的免税期等优厚的税收政策，慷慨程度大大高于其他的国家，政府财政部担心，将遭受大约1.8万亿卢比（1美元约合46卢比）的损失。左派政党说，经济特区成了企业家们的乐园，印度百姓包括中央政府却未必能够从中受益。同时，批评特区政策的经济学家认为，经济特区吸引的投资者不是新投资者，而只是已经在印度的投资者，只是让他们换了个地方，政府白白损失税收。另外，印度的经济特区中，至今吸引到的，大部分是信息技术公司。而不是政府想要的能够解决大量失业人口的制造业。人在德国社区3 C7 l" H+ e. F% |- g

印度工商部长卡迈勒·纳特（Kamal Nath）表示，那些希望印度的经济特区能够达到中国经济特区规模的人很幼稚。他表示，印度的民主体系及很高的人口密度，使她不可能简单模仿中国的模式。人在德国社区& A0 O  ^3 ?/ _: Q4 ^$ G% i
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或许由于备受批评的压力，印度国会主导的政府已经在1月底决定停止审批新的经济特区的申请，直到弄清楚一些较具争议性的问题再说。据说，新德里将要求特区的公司产品中至少一半出口。
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总之，不论印度的领导人做什么，可以肯定的是，他们肯定要有一只眼睛盯着民意，而他们的中国对手很少需要考虑到民意。

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The Cost of Keeping Up With China
  Comparisons between India and China are probably inevitable. The Asian neighbors both boast more than a billion citizens, and both enjoy giddy economic growth rates. Both are also touted as future superpowers, although China is a lot closer to that status than India. But the two nations are also very different: one's an autocratic one-party state; the other a flawed but functioning democracy.Those differences have a huge impact on the way the two countries are growing. Insimple terms, if China's rulers want to build a new highway they do. In India, well, it's more complicated. 人在德国社区( f8 P/ y) i* N3 |$ l
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  One such complication is the focus of an internal report of the ruling Congress party leaked to the Indian press last week. The alleged report, whose very existence is denied by Congress officials, contends that the government's policy on Special Economic Zones — India's version of investment enclaves that offer tax incentives, good infrastructure and other benefits — may cost the party votes in future elections.
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  At first glance the promotion of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) would seem unlikely to attract much controversy. Many developing countries have used such enclaves to encourage foreign investment and manufacturing growth. India was, in fact, the first country in Asia to demarcate a special economic enclave when it introduced an "export processing zone" in Gujarat in the mid 1960s. But in the past few years, the country has been playing catch-up with places such as China, which used SEZs to kick-start its own incredible economic expansion almost three decades ago. India attracts barely 10% of the foreign direct investment figure for China (although the two count investment in different ways), and wants to close the gap as rapidly as possible. Earlylast year,the Congress-led government passed a new SEZ law designed to speed up India's economy, in particular its manufacturing sector, by offering further incentives to prospective investors. Since then, hundreds of companies have applied to set up SEZs, with the government so far approving more than 200.+ Q+ u; ?. H5 `, Q  P9 q- C5 \

  The problem is that many of the SEZs are on prime farming land. A few landowners are only too happy to sell up at a huge profit, but many poorer farmers and farm laborers are understandably opposed to having their livelihoods forcibly sold out from underneath them. Opposition to the SEZs is growing, and the consequences of that for the Congress, or any political party in India that hopes to win the rural vote — and given that a majority of Indians still live outside urban areas most parties do — could be particularly painful come polling day.
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  Although the Chinese authorities are mindful of the danger of a socially disruptive backlash by poor rural citizens, there are no national elections to worry about. "Voting is a much more immediate, more powerful threat,"says Indian economic analyst Paranjoy Guha Thakurta. "And even when there's no election looming, Indians can put pressure on their representatives to have the bureaucrats transferred if they don't like them. In China you have a one-party state so that's a bit harder." 人在德国社区6 I0 ^: |- T9 P/ g) J, M
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  And it's not only farmers that India's politicians have to worry about. Opposition to the SEZs is coming even from free-market reformists. Most of India's newest investment zones are much smaller than China's and may not be economically viable in the long term. The tax breaks, which include a five-year holiday on profits tax and exemption from import and excise duty, are also much more generous than those in other countries. Critics of India's approach worry that its SEZs will not attract new investment but merely suck in investment already headed to India while hurting tax revenues. Also, India's Special Economic Zones have so far attracted mostly info-tech companies and not the employee-hungry manufacturers the country's unemployed had hoped for.

  Perhaps stung by the mounting criticism, the Congress-led government this week decided to stop approving new SEZ applications until it can sort out some of the more contentious issues. There is talk that New Delhi will force any company operating in an SEZ to export at least half of its production.: z  |5 A7 I0 }! [9 y) f- i

Whatever India's leaders do, you can be sure they will have one eye on public opinion, a handicap their Chinese counterparts rarely have to deal with.- r4 w6 o2 e6 {1 @" ~. |, X

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  An activist of The Communist Party of India grapples with police while taking part in a protest in New Delhi, January 8th 2007, against the death of villagers who were protesting against the Special Economic Zones (SEZ) in Nandigramin West Bengal.7 f! ?- S- e3 W
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[ 本帖最后由日月光于 2007-1-31 22:23 编辑 ]

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