[中国新闻] 谁是中国军方的最高领导？

军事专家认为，当中国将本身的经济成长隐入政治力量中时，军事方面缺乏透明度与长期以来保密的习惯，让外界对中国长期以来的野心感到担忧与质疑。
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《国际先驱论坛报》6月22日报导，对于外国政府以及监控中国军事情况的分析家来说，其中一个最大的待解问题便是：谁是军方的最高领导？一般来说，身兼中国共产党中央军事委员会总书记的中国国家主席胡锦涛，为军方的总领导，但专家们却对此抱存疑态度，认为权力的延伸将使得胡锦涛与其底下的官员，共享掌握230万人人民解放军的权力。9 R* u5 X* D& P: v2 N
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“我认为胡锦涛正面对的是来自高级军官的挑战。”台湾大学研究国际关系的政治学教授，同时为军事专家的杨永明认为，尤其是那些带着不同问题、对外在世界，尤其是东亚局势的改变抱持不同观点的人。

对中国的邻居以及包括美国在内的地区军事力量来说，无从得知中国的军事决定，让这些国家感到挫折，他们一向希望藉由了解中国来平衡亚洲的军事力量。目前中国的部分对外目标，可从军事出版物、高级领导的演说以及武器展示的数量和型号中清楚了解；报导称，中国军队的首要任务，便是确保共产党的独裁统治权力以及保护他们的高级领导们。 ( G6 S9 K$ k8 D% g. q

为了保卫中国领土，大部分的中国与外国分析师同意，由于北京表示自己的军事力量凌驾台湾，北京的目标便是建立一个能强化这番言论的军事力量。 ! b- Q+ v8 v5 B: a

只是，目前外国政府与分析师均无从得知中国的想法，包括中国何时会调整军力，或什麽样的威胁使得中国增加军备。3 N" N! S9 }2 Q

美国总统布什便不断抱怨中国缺乏透明度的军备，并呼吁北京做改变。 “对于支持中国的军事现代化，外界所面临的是对动机、决策与主要能力的有限了解。”美国国防部在上个月的年度报告上，发表对中国军事力量的观察。“中国的领导还未对人民解放军扩大军备的目的做出适当解释。” 外界指责，中国增加军备，会影响到整个地区的稳定。高级中国官员则反对这项说法，并坚持国防经费是依据国家需求谨慎制订的。部分具影响力的中国分析师也表示，华府对台湾的军事支持，让中国透露更多军事情报变得不可能。 “我们必须隐瞒部分的情报，以保持战斗力。”上海复旦大学安全专家沈丁立指出。“我们不能让台湾和美国知道若美国决定在台海冲突时派兵协防台湾，我们将计画如何采取攻击。”人在德国社区1 D4 u* Q0 `$ H. g3 Y0 _8 x5 @

对中国军方由谁主政的质疑，在今年1月11日中国成功发射导弹、摧毁老旧气象卫星后上涨。大部分的分析家所得到的结论是，包括外交部高级官员在内的人士，均被蒙在谷底，不知道军方此次的计画。 csuchen.de8 w- b% r  w) c/ B% s
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尽管国际间已经提出广泛的抗议，但中国外交部仍花了两天的时间才完全确定这项测试。其他分析家则举另一个例子。去年10月26日，在冲绳岛（Okinawa）附近的太平洋海面，一架中国最新进的“宋“级柴油动力攻击潜艇秘密接近美国航空母舰小鹰号（Kitty Hawk），中国潜艇在没有被美国战舰发现的状况下，进入鱼雷和导弹射程内，也就是距离小鹰号五海里的地方浮出海面，被美军侦察飞机发现。美国国防部一官员表示，中国潜艇的位置是被航空母舰上的一架舰载侦察飞机，在例行巡逻时确定的。csuchen.de0 P7 g3 a! {. |( `

部分专家质疑中国人民领导是否批准此项高度敏感的行动。《国际先驱论坛报》报导，某些分析家认为两件事不但激起了华府对北京增强军力的不满，也显露出中国军方对的中国外交关系并不是太关心。 , N/ ], b& ]$ @/ l

此外，也有迹象显示部分军官享受这种远离批评感觉。少将朱成虎就是一个例子。根据中国官员的说法，在他于2005年7月表示若美军干涉台湾问题，则中国将以核武反击的观点后，便远离一系列的责备；虽然国际间对朱成虎的言论不满，但中国高层单位却不愿做出责备或是任何回应。 csuchen.de- A: Y, D, t' D5 s. x

另一中国容忍军方的例子是已故中国国家主席李先念的女婿，同时为空军副政委的思想家刘亚洲。刘亚洲一直以来相当活跃，不断发表演说倡导政治改革，但政治改革却可能威胁到大部分的资深中国官员。csuchen.de1 q0 e9 _8 [: u5 j/ F( b+ H, i
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部分观察家期望胡锦涛的实权能更少些，而不是象毛泽东或邓小平般同时掌握中国军队。不过，自从胡锦涛在2003年取代江泽民后，大部分分析师推测，若胡锦涛想拥有同江泽民般对军队的掌控，或是建立起自己的力量，均需要一段时间。另一方面，胡锦涛也企图以各种方式建立起自己的权威，包括提拔忠于自己的官员。从演说与军方报纸、杂志的报告中，也可看出胡锦涛想成为军方领袖与思想佳的企图心；在这些演说中，胡锦涛赞扬军方准备在高科技战争中的实力累积。分析家说，胡锦涛在演说中引用的毛泽东、邓小平与江泽民思想，展现了胡锦涛想塑造的形象：一个重视传统，但朝着现代化迈进的领袖。虽然胡锦涛的背景是一位工程师和人民领袖，但他所穿着的，实际上是橄榄绿的军衣。在胡锦涛之下，军方持续享受国家每年对军方增加的预算款项，这笔预算除了用在军备上外，还用于资深官员的生活方面。尽管部分年轻官员认为中国军队应成为一个完全专业的力量、对国家忠诚，而不是对统治党忠诚，但分析家认为胡锦涛仍想加强本身对军方的控制。胡锦涛的想法在今年4月份的共党杂志《求实》上得到强化。国防大学上将赵可铭写道，军方需抵抗那些呼吁军政分开的言论。 “我们必须自始至终支持中国共产党的实权。”赵可铭说。
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Chinese soldiers at a welcoming ceremony in Beijing on Friday for President Jalal Talabani of Iraq. % p- a& z/ |, s4 @+ c
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A mystery in Beijing: Who runs the military?3 Z0 J- S7 E0 X9 q* d+ S1 ^
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BEIJING: As China converts its growing economic power into military muscle, a lack of transparency and a habit of secrecy pose formidable challenges in assessing the country's long-term ambitions, according to defense experts.csuchen.de9 U2 P# X! i: r3 ?/ ~

For foreign governments and analysts monitoring the Chinese military, one of the biggest mysteries is who is actually in charge.
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Nominally, President Hu Jintao, who is also chairman of the Central Military Commission, the top military command body, is head of the armed forces, but there is considerable doubt among experts about the extent of the authority that he and his fellow civilian leaders exert over the 2.3 million-strong People's Liberation Army.& ^1 ^% H& ~4 D( Y: w
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"I think Hu Jintao is still facing some challenges from top generals," said Philip Yang, an expert on the Chinese military and a professor of international relations at the National Taiwan University. "Especially those with their own agenda from the different services and others with their own agenda and perceptions about changes in the outside world, particularly in East Asia."2 U- }$ W4 P7 l8 D8 ?0 E6 J
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For China's neighbors and regional military powers, including the United States, this lack of knowledge about China's military decision-making is frustrating attempts to understand a buildup that could shift the balance of power in Asia.csuchen.de8 `8 P) q( R9 W& S$ W

Some of China's broad goals are clear from military publications, the speeches of senior leaders and the type and numbers of new weapons deployed.

The army's primary mission remains preserving the Communist Party's monopoly on power and protecting senior leaders.) [0 i- X: O! M) _$ g1 z, W
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In addition to defending Chinese territory, most Chinese and foreign analysts agree that Beijing aims to build a force capable of enforcing its claim of sovereignty over Taiwan.
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But China's current thinking about when force is justified or what perceived threats are driving its accumulation of firepower remains unclear for most foreign governments and analysts.% V' h; ?- k! W
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Some foreign military analysts believe that there is now considerable debate under way in the Chinese military about the role of pre-emptive force in some circumstances including the use of nuclear weapons.( [8 a$ z* b/ t3 G8 i

The Bush administration has repeatedly complained about this lack of transparency and called for increased military exchanges with Beijing.

"The outside world has limited knowledge of the motivations, decision making and key capabilities supporting China's military modernization," the Pentagon said in its annual report on China's military power released late last month. "China's leaders have yet to explain adequately the purposes or desired end-states of the PLA's expanding military capabilities."

Senior Chinese officials reject suggestions that a stronger army poses a threat to regional stability and insist that defense spending is strictly tailored to the country's needs.
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Some influential Chinese analysts say that the PLA has made considerable strides in recent years in explaining its doctrine and spending plans, and they expect this trend to continue.4 m$ _: _5 {- G" |% i6 x

But they argue that Washington's military support for Taiwan makes it impossible for China to reveal more about its strategic thinking and force structure.
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"We have to keep certain secrets in order to have a war-fighting capability," said Shen Dingli, a security expert at Fudan University in Shanghai. "We can't let Taiwan and the U.S. know how we are going to defeat them if the U.S. decides to send forces to intervene in a conflict over Taiwan."* V3 A/ g' J, [2 U

Doubts about the chain of command in China were heightened in the aftermath of the PLA's successful test of an antisatellite missile on Jan. 11 when most analysts concluded that top officials from the Foreign Ministry and civilian bureaucracy were clearly in the dark about the military's plan to shoot down an obsolete weather satellite.

Despite widespread protest from the international community, it took almost two weeks before the Foreign Ministry confirmed the test.csuchen.de9 N2 J( V1 w5 r' W* h) x

Other analysts point to an incident in October when one of China's newest conventional submarines approached the U.S. aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk and its battle group in international waters off Okinawa and was only detected when it surfaced near the American ships.

U.S. officials played down the incident, but some experts questioned whether China's civilian leadership would have sanctioned what could be seen as a highly provocative move.
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For some analysts, both incidents could be interpreted as a clear demonstration for Washington of China's growing military capabilities and perhaps evidence that elements in the PLA leadership were less concerned about the diplomatic consequences than their civilian counterparts.! v. e) n  z. f" F' F! @2 U
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There is also evidence that some military officers enjoy far more leeway for criticizing or contradicting official policy in a country where dissent remains tightly controlled.

Major General Zhu Chenghu escaped serious censure, according to Chinese officials, after he said in July 2005 that China would respond with nuclear weapons if the United States intervened in a conflict over Taiwan.

Amid an international outcry over Zhu's remarks, top civilian bureaucrats were extremely reluctant to criticize him or even comment on his views.
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Tolerance has also been extended to another senior officer and influential thinker, Lieutenant General Liu Yazhou, who has publicly called for political reform in China, a move that would be dangerous for most senior Chinese officials.人在德国社区) |5 t% \  T4 g9 e

To some observers, it is to be expected that Hu lacks the authority that revolutionary leaders like Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping exerted over the military after establishing their credentials in resisting the Japanese invasion and then winning the civil war.
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"Since Deng Xiaoping, no one has had that kind of control or legitimacy," said Yang.csuchen.de5 l  z; N/ |8 ^7 {
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When Hu succeeded former President Jiang Zemin in 2003 as leader of the state, party and military, most analysts speculated that it would take time for him to match his predecessors' hold over the armed forces and begin building his own power base.

There were signs that Hu is attempting to assert his authority through the promotion of loyal senior officers, a crackdown on corruption in the armed forces and the tough disciplinary action against senior officers held responsible for two accidents last year in which about 90 troops were killed.* ~7 F7 E  e4 b5 k, p% D
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Hu is also expected to use the 17th party congress expected to be held in October to promote more of his supporters in the military to top posts.

From speeches and reports in military newspapers and magazines, it also appears that Hu has been attempting to demonstrate his credentials as a military leader and thinker.csuchen.de  }$ c. y" s" T& f

In these speeches, Hu has exhorted the military to accelerate preparations to fight high technology wars in an age where the use of information is crucial on the battlefield.& d0 Q4 R( @, X. N# ~

Analysts say that his references in these speeches to the military and political thinking of former leaders Mao, Deng and Jiang is an attempt to portray himself as part of a tradition that has directed the modernization of the PLA from a mass, peasant army to a modern, high technology force.
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Under Hu, the military has continued to enjoy double-digit annual budget increases to pay for increasingly sophisticated weapons and improved lifestyles for senior officers.

Despite his background as an engineer and civilian bureaucrat, Hu wears an olive green style military tunic - although without badges or insignia - when meeting senior officers or attending parades and functions.7 [% d0 w+ z4 ~8 }" i
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In what is seen by some analysts as an attempt to consolidate his control, Hu has ruled out suggestions from some younger officers that the Chinese military should become a fully professional force that owes its loyalty to the state rather than the ruling party.
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In a speech to military delegates to China's annual parliamentary session in March, Hu called for tighter political discipline.
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This view was reinforced in an April edition of the party magazine, Qiushi (Seeking Truth), where General Zhao Keming, the political commissar of China's National Defense University, wrote that the military must resist pressure to distance itself from politics.人在德国社区! O2 S; S" B) h& r! G: N' V- F
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"We must uphold the Chinese Communist Party's absolute leadership over the army from beginning to end," Zhao wrote.

[ 本帖最后由日月光于 2007-6-23 20:43 编辑 ]

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