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原帖由 驴子 于 2008-1-15 13:10 发表 
第一次选的时候,对的概率是1/4,错的概率是3/4
第二次,如果不换,对的概率不变,还是1/4,如果换,对的概率就是第一次选错的概率乘以1/2,也就是3/4*1/2=3/8
why 3/8 instead of 1/3?
it's nothing else than the problem: choose 1 out of 3 doors after one of them is eliminated
since the decision this time is to be made under new condition, the original probabilities 1/4, 3/4 should be updated
if there's no right to alter the choice, the probabilitiy of a right decision remains since the elimination of one is not a random process and thus doesn't contributes to the result |
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