[中国新闻] 中国经济：与公牛赛跑

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外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年; U: O9 @, K6 v+ v$ S& x, G- {- D
2010年08月19日 14:15   来源：中新社   黄瑞
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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。; W0 _# v  F- u+ ?( i

1 r6 X& R2 }) p4 t, R; m+ X人在德国 社区　　华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。' k- ]% g+ v' |6 N# F3 G; b  V

2 L* A9 o" j8 G# V. u' U9 }　　英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。
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　　在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。
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　　金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。
3 {8 `4 B( K5 r0 h# ]" r: w, k　　华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。
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( Z4 ?4 W# `+ y- }, ?　　比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。7 a& e3 t" H* ?% V& |4 f0 T

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Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020  Source : Reuterscsuchen.de0 }- U0 C& C1 v2 @. K
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BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ' }, x/ y/ _8 {, ?6 U% S' G

2 s: X; v: _" v3 hA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency.
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3 I7 Q" _$ g% N; a0 W( h! ucsuchen.deLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. csuchen.de6 f9 C: Y! d; l: K! p  t( g  m
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. $ a% c* G4 m" M# _- \6 k: p

/ Q4 O4 [( W* B6 |4 E( M& Z( _/ k人在德国 社区Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. csuchen.de( V+ H3 O9 u: q( x) _" U

0 a, A1 B' \1 H" T2 B& gFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 9 @+ b0 u- d5 O* N/ B4 a8 K

5 @+ `* H- u7 {' W' Ccsuchen.deThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. 人在德国 社区2 Q- H: d6 A* u, m, R8 ]% S* c4 |' R
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"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. csuchen.de0 E9 q' A% M. I) b) f

! ^6 ?  H6 w0 _6 k! R* F' |In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. * A3 T0 p0 x! [/ K7 ^

; O! C( A* |( q% R0 YGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform.
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office.
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Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. " F) \- M, X4 g+ E. v

) y9 g* [) j" S3 eChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period".
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching.
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. & ^" {& l2 n5 _! j

. P/ |! Z0 G# H"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. . ?( Z" d7 C* x* i8 |2 r8 }5 Y

% {. ]3 C0 F& I- f! M! Rcsuchen.deGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. % x, r4 Z, G+ G
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.