[中国新闻] 中国经济：与公牛赛跑

Ampelmann

外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年
% Y, {- g/ r7 S" T2010年08月19日 14:15   来源：中新社   黄瑞人在德国 社区3 h5 G6 O6 O& j' S4 b3 `

7 L8 r2 Y0 J$ O! l: P+ |$ B
8 m/ J5 Z, a/ ucsuchen.de中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。
0 P! t+ a: \8 j6 b
8 X) D# R: F1 l; ]# M& U* D　　华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。人在德国 社区$ r0 T4 ^; w' x: k& H

. c& ^  C: _4 ]+ g; i4 w( B　　英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。
, C  W4 t: Q# M. Y) G: P7 l
8 `6 }6 _+ I# |　　在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。
& T9 F, j$ i3 ?5 J6 Z8 X/ s7 bcsuchen.de9 y5 V; n; R9 A% O- C. ^
　　金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。csuchen.de: A( \& ?0 l* i3 A) n
　　华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。人在德国 社区# c0 e& |1 T( ?$ k* N, a
/ N# i' Q5 n) H9 r- \; ~: S  W, U
　　比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。
$ |0 V: ?1 ~, n+ v# F. f2 |! A( t& w" e9 k! ~
（责任编辑：杨海洋）人在德国 社区+ E4 p) e# N, I- u
csuchen.de: B" Q1 X. N" f2 W& M. u( U; }3 ?! u* V
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020  Source : Reuters
' H9 {+ t7 V. A5 h5 k% D& Hcsuchen.de& [: |# S. c! }2 g
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ! B1 Z( F  ]. g5 E
" A9 o. R! P: p
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency.
# p+ q/ r* |. j- c! J人在德国 社区4 j% C/ |- _2 h: h4 X1 {9 h
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 人在德国 社区" o9 e8 n7 _2 ~8 u) ?# m

+ Q/ P+ S' m( _4 {; {% {; k9 f- \% j/ X人在德国 社区After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. csuchen.de, P9 J8 o$ E& A3 r
" Y7 k9 _& P6 K% x6 Y
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past.
: b) k8 b0 l! m" Y人在德国 社区7 l# q3 Z6 ~, p1 S, S# {
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ) |" K7 H6 h% P. R; j8 h
人在德国 社区, Y1 p& w6 r5 ^8 y
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ! v$ [8 j, ~1 F9 X6 q) b6 I5 O
/ S9 B1 S' `! k3 K1 P
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 1 F" k: U7 Z8 c, J. y
csuchen.de  C% t4 c, y0 V( u6 R1 o
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. - |* {& Q) g4 y

& d- r) y4 C  E9 G3 ~" p" ]& uGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform.
1 J7 U" F  k5 G# }csuchen.de
. h! a! ?' T, C: MThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. csuchen.de  O- d$ U3 \4 Y, E9 Y! F

/ [( z- Z3 v& Y3 P" g- fUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. # x7 }8 u+ A- V8 I: ^
: I8 _  P% h% S. Q1 f
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period".
/ O  E! D" j2 [7 t  x4 l' m7 B; n7 g$ ^. l$ R: c# i$ w
If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. / e9 w8 z  E/ c' W( v& ]
, T1 d0 h; k' R$ p
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth.
$ B$ G9 x4 k: e4 R9 S8 s# Y+ v9 t$ g; s0 J( E$ v& Q
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 7 E* s. j. l1 q+ d9 e! `

6 X  t5 X  ~; R, g" i. ]3 g+ dGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures.
% a1 p/ F) r/ q( Z' [) `0 t
0 U. P. e; K2 M0 W- PThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.