# O, H8 \1 K& E9 y' [李明博政府上台的2008年，北韩国防委员长金正日得了脑溢血，从此以后，北韩体制开始变得极其不稳定，甚至很难预测两三年后会怎样。从去年发生的天安舰和延坪岛事件中可以看出，北韩发起的局部挑衅已经成为摆在眼前的事实。现在，韩国需要担心的不是北韩正规军队越过停战线进入韩国的可能性，而是北韩特种部队秘密突袭西海五岛和北韩局势陷入混乱后核武器落入极端分子手中的可能性。韩美两国现在应该摆脱持续30年的安保模式，针对北韩局势的变化尝试新的联合军演方式。 * S% Q h. `$ G# p 9 t. [1 d. g2 Y5 {但对于韩美两国采用新的军演方式后可能会出现的一些情况，韩美两国尤其是韩国，必须在外交和政治方面做好应对准备。从北韩体制的性质来看，他们会把针对本国领导人去世时可能出现的核武器外流事态进行的紧急控制演习视为对北敌对行为，并发起强烈抗议。与此同时，韩美两国应对北韩剧变的步伐越是一致，北韩就会越向中国靠拢，这种连锁副作用也需要留意。5 R2 h D/ H3 a0 B1 K) Q
, P. W. D8 \% @2 a/ Q0 d2 W不能因为怕刺激北韩就疏于应对现实威胁，同时也应该避免唯独针对北韩军事威胁的对策破坏南北对话基础。虽然矛盾，但这就是韩半岛的现实。 9 a8 H& p9 e! K. z* s3 z% H" B; w' [5 H& r8 l1 W- P9 i E! V
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6 [( B, C4 L6 ~: @A South Korean anti-war activist holds a placard during a rally against US-South Korea joint military exercises, near the US embassy in Seoul on February 15, 2011. The US and South Korea will launch annual joint military exercises, Key Resolve/Foal Eagle, late this month amid continuing tensions with North Korea over two deadly border incidents last year.; S$ U& h+ t/ F" C5 ^1 y
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A South Korean anti-war activist smashes a globe with pictures of US military weapons during a rally against US-South Korea joint military exercises, near the US embassy in Seoul on February 15, 2011. The US and South Korea will launch annual joint military exercises, Key Resolve/Foal Eagle, late this month amid continuing tensions with North Korea over two deadly border incidents last year.
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图片附件: South Korean anti-war activist2.jpg (2011-2-16 09:03, 78.16 KB) / 下载次数 84 http://csuchen.de/bbs/attachment.php?aid=411397&k=0b627a6fdbb1779466cbeda896c84c3a&t=1727441728&sid=9Yw1T2
图片附件: South Korean anti-war activist.jpg (2011-2-16 09:03, 74 KB) / 下载次数 86
