/ b9 z* L* n6 X3 g* b% G6 d7 l韩美决定更改两国联合军演“关键决断”的演习方式。“关键决断”联合军演原来一直是为了应对北韩发起的全面战争挑衅。但此次演习将针对北韩国防委员长金正日去世和金正恩接班体制出现问题时北韩可能发生的内战等情况。据说，此次还将针对类似天安舰爆炸沉没和延坪岛炮击事件的北韩局部地区挑衅进行演习。, t# J( N+ {* S# A
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韩美军方从十多年前就开始将南北全面战争和北韩剧变同时视为威胁韩半岛安全的因素。美方当时向金大中政府提议，除了原有应对全面战争的《作战计划 5027》外，还有必要制定应对北韩剧变的《作战计划5029》，此后于1999年制定了比作战计划低一个级别的抽象版本《概念计划5029》。美方一直想把概念计划发展成为包括出动兵力和部队部署等具体问题的作战计划，但卢武铉政府以可能刺激北韩为由拒绝了美方的提议。+ n1 Q, ]4 y, e
# v* K7 g( m' p李明博政府上台的2008年，北韩国防委员长金正日得了脑溢血，从此以后，北韩体制开始变得极其不稳定，甚至很难预测两三年后会怎样。从去年发生的天安舰和延坪岛事件中可以看出，北韩发起的局部挑衅已经成为摆在眼前的事实。现在，韩国需要担心的不是北韩正规军队越过停战线进入韩国的可能性，而是北韩特种部队秘密突袭西海五岛和北韩局势陷入混乱后核武器落入极端分子手中的可能性。韩美两国现在应该摆脱持续30年的安保模式，针对北韩局势的变化尝试新的联合军演方式。. a& d J/ V7 f
7 Q$ \5 N3 I! G8 L! hA South Korean anti-war activist holds a placard during a rally against US-South Korea joint military exercises, near the US embassy in Seoul on February 15, 2011. The US and South Korea will launch annual joint military exercises, Key Resolve/Foal Eagle, late this month amid continuing tensions with North Korea over two deadly border incidents last year. " f: X! E5 l; W/ O1 U2 g) f) L2 w7 L& `5 | _$ M8 w0 \0 F
3 \9 u( G0 V& J: J# D$ P& Y( mA South Korean anti-war activist smashes a globe with pictures of US military weapons during a rally against US-South Korea joint military exercises, near the US embassy in Seoul on February 15, 2011. The US and South Korea will launch annual joint military exercises, Key Resolve/Foal Eagle, late this month amid continuing tensions with North Korea over two deadly border incidents last year.
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