越来越多的经济学家现在担心，飙升的通货膨胀率、大幅增加的政府债务以及资产泡沫明年有可能使中国经济增长放慢下来。苏格兰皇家银行一位分析师建议客户采取对冲措施，以防范大量资金涌入中国以及中国通货膨胀率飙升所带来的风险，他说这两个因素有可能导致“灾难性后果”。 l) ^4 ?, ?, N2 w3 d # T" ], @0 M% j$ E中国最迫在眉睫的挑战看来是通货膨胀问题，一些分析师认为中国的通胀形势可能比官方最新数据所显示的还要严重。住房价格已经直线上涨，牛奶、蔬菜和其他食品的价格今年也大幅飙升。中欧国际工商学院经济学教授许小年说，通货膨胀不是中国面临的最严峻问题，中国需要解决的最根本问题是结构性的，我们需要打破国家在教育、医疗卫生、电信和娱乐行业的垄断，我们需要创造更多就业，使中国经济更具创新性。 b* e) ~- I- h: q* a1 `: y% S b/ f3 f) G+ g u3 o' Q: H+ Q3 ~ V) Q9 Q1 ~$ H7 sChina is looking to restructure its economy away from dependence on exports like textiles. 4 t! G* ^, |9 H& v. C/ f$ ]
2 v9 |* Z! l1 D) C/ E ( S h, g9 o( p8 @0 u) ~China wants to steer its economy toward domestic consumption, hoping to create more balanced and sustainable growth.2 Y B+ p0 Z+ C2 R( G
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As China Rolls Ahead, Fear Follows$ b0 y4 `9 k- {4 E( j) j4 L8 m
' s+ ~* a+ z* j; _For nearly two years, China’s turbocharged economy has raced ahead with the aid of a huge government stimulus program and aggressive lending by state-run banks. 4 o0 m5 z" F/ L) p 3 Q8 e* ]$ A* A& `' Q+ o/ X- x0 pBut a growing number of economists now worry that China — the world’s fastest growing economy and a pillar of strength during the global financial crisis — could be stalled next year by soaring inflation, mounting government debt and asset bubbles. $ f* j: g1 q# Z3 L8 `9 G! q
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But last week, an analyst at the Royal Bank of Scotland advised clients to hedge against the risk that a flood of cash into China, coupled with soaring inflation, could result in a “day of reckoning.” - E8 F: B+ j4 R, s; z+ V. j / J( E8 a- {% y( x3 n3 O6 w“Inflation is not the most serious problem,” says Xu Xiaonian, a professor of economics at the China Europe International Business School in Shanghai. “The most fundamental problem we have to resolve is structural. We need more opening up and reform policies. Look at the state monopolies in education, health care, telecom and entertainment. We need to break those up. We need to create more jobs and make the economy more innovative.”
