外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年 9 i, t8 Y9 V; J2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 1 f7 H+ K& p; W* N! n , l: W1 P. t. q' G e & W( m, a5 ~& d4 w$ v6 `
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 ! M0 d5 s( C& q' q" L' ]& o- u% l6 `9 S
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ( k8 n d7 p2 W- Z, w 7 P) [, g9 Y0 ?/ c 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 W7 j( _" p, p& i$ Q) o+ { ; ?& d( l" H. t! b, ~0 u 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。9 v1 Z+ |& L( ]8 s. I4 K. m, r
# E% g1 f- Y" m A 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 7 t( T3 _; T5 M9 a" h2 l \ 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 % ^4 F" T; ~, O# |( Q: T9 v# z- x) g! l! Q: P9 d
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 6 a6 ]8 C8 t3 q1 y |" O : }: z% c/ V( j2 L1 n7 H（责任编辑：杨海洋） 4 t$ V$ o5 F, Q1 P% a3 |7 S6 P1 `! K: n) m/ h% J% p0 [% X
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters & j+ a! }- p$ X' }- s 7 M z1 @$ _6 W7 S$ RBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 0 Q1 }& a5 A& l" S( f6 j- Y$ T8 F! W; V% E* y# z- i4 h1 v
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. $ I( k7 v( z3 t% J& ^0 @5 u+ }7 M5 |: b( k3 s% `
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. # k& s" c3 i8 Q1 B' d0 Z, z# N& X % U# _! l. A8 Y; vAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. + P6 U5 Q9 u8 |1 p! b
$ F* D; W$ Z F& \; ^- I, lRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. / ]# m7 O, G5 k+ `
3 v0 ~1 U) H, w" q& ]/ ~! pFirst and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 5 s5 b9 q$ f3 h) }( x" ?1 B
9 ^$ G- |' O2 P3 i+ `; F0 vThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. * ?7 l+ x$ Q1 Z2 f' T( r3 M9 ?( j8 f |
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. * U# J. u$ N' n: @& u% d
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. * S* K: C$ d8 x/ y2 R; u9 j" u, s' P; r
Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 9 n9 s2 k& P- x2 l3 W- b( C
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. + h/ A5 A7 z0 c Y. _ 7 J0 Y- N2 y5 O4 i+ NUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. & ? u/ S( V" }) G7 F
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". & B3 `# K$ i {2 j c8 Q. O
4 E# v% l) k9 A; F6 hIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. ' f* u5 T5 H; l" v4 L
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 4 Z C" Z9 w% A' S( T8 m
2 P; q) }+ e; f9 G4 ~"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. . O9 e' c7 W# _9 H
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Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 4 @: U8 e! ` H5 t9 ^7 e8 u
