外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年& z9 F l u" O- T0 n. \8 H
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞% j& F# [- A4 h0 f! y0 k( F. ~
5 }, \8 a+ P' Z" d1 G, _0 [
9 m8 i" x+ [) R3 A% x
中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 % m; }' S/ \* z/ ^3 ? [+ C7 \ ) \ v1 ]! T- O/ Y 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。1 b7 k5 `2 ^% z, z! T6 A
3 N S' Q1 I( J) q: T. n' w4 d e 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。1 c; u' C2 y X! }
7 x; }; r, P6 C G 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。1 h5 y- t! w& O# P5 b1 E! |4 J1 A
8 m6 \5 V/ d6 e% \ 金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 1 f9 U2 b. o. @0 t' Y9 W- S 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 8 d7 V' P" V$ _) f) _1 w1 Q2 z7 S( ?- m% u4 M
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 9 J* {* R0 t/ g( M+ Y& x" C, P9 |" k) T% P （责任编辑：杨海洋） / S+ _" q6 F" R4 e0 O " F5 D) v( ]9 O; l7 H9 c L4 ERunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 7 \# t- S. B0 s0 j1 ^( X5 Y' z3 u ( Q/ f5 l+ P; ?2 `. zBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. ) r `6 {# w$ {! a- F2 G
n% M6 I# w1 @% I T N3 cA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. & b0 T$ t5 T" o+ C7 N
; p4 d5 t& v- [! P& d e, @, U
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 7 i8 t. _( i( B5 P! D" I. ^
- l6 g5 L7 w: C5 ~After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. 8 t; V5 e9 W) F 7 q3 f4 B9 x# `* x) X# X6 \% }Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. ( A' N% V7 g/ f' Z0 l
* ?- D- N9 t. a( \8 R) |
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. % B% {& B: r* D5 v) Q2 G
. b E5 a" f! p4 U! _+ t
This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. + c" v' D( Y& m, N ]& h3 {: J; E! [7 k& v
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 7 Z( i" W" V( H" g- l
" n L r. v, \ y; }% `
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. $ X4 N% g* H8 x7 p# q9 o ! y# K. S& e% fGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. , |& s' O2 `8 @6 m m; {- i9 s 8 i9 Y5 k% e" p# H0 Y2 l7 s0 nThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 3 G. m1 R) x- U* H! @4 ^
5 d# n0 `" @5 j+ d: E9 f6 c/ E3 KUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. ! _/ D* y3 @3 L+ j4 R) p+ _' F: u 4 a" W+ [$ E1 E( b/ ?! m4 \China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". & O4 C7 _8 Z# W, A$ a* L6 W
' Q, |4 | a" J9 WIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. * s, N2 N/ b# E& h$ M+ J
& I7 `2 o3 n5 G2 J
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 7 |; h9 o2 Y6 q6 y5 Q
, b. |+ k+ E) R/ I2 i" D"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. % [: `: Q% s0 ?8 i0 x5 z# @
3 R( i- W, S7 @1 uGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. / D% v8 r, R7 _6 Z
