% ] H5 K' }+ z- D( w0 C9 ARunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 5 x3 ?* m: R) o6 m) U4 n& v- i9 E. ]! O. I H, [6 j/ `
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 4 I, C$ w3 ^8 V6 M& I; J . k& P& p+ K& Q4 V2 [' X6 U: ~; {A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. / b2 u/ P$ A( r/ [! `
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. / ^, l( {! ~8 b/ N+ _ 1 A) `) Y; c! C! I7 dAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. & v1 O, x! }% Z* A6 H " n7 D* W$ n% e: M8 ~Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 3 v9 Y+ ]6 ]6 z9 t9 O) _
3 b1 o% c3 J" h+ h' ^First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 5 c' H4 r" W# k1 v/ f; Z
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. $ Q: U( W7 u' h3 ^0 m4 a4 O
5 X/ |8 [8 {9 W" r"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. 3 h- L& C" M' N0 }& \% L/ a! y$ K# y
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 6 ]4 Y' p! O k' r- t M, x5 F
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 4 q9 X2 I3 v8 o
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. : Q5 Q$ u( f! [7 a W
+ j5 Y8 F6 B6 I, YUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. - @3 W0 A" t% S0 \3 F( t # f8 M! |3 W7 ?3 o/ v* AChina, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 0 A5 X& r N$ b9 W- T
) c2 y# `2 r) H2 f' G# K/ |; x! zIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. . P K6 J8 O; p2 k- v & i; o, ` r$ t' ~* N% IInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. , O( D$ T, y4 H( n4 l8 }; s
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"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. - u) Y6 f; Y: S* C- Q# Z0 k' q: N/ p3 u& \9 ]
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ' {: V. v5 y- s: J( A$ n, U; E9 ? % l) k U5 K/ _9 V/ hThink high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
