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中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 / M& _. j6 E7 l5 v; M6 ]: y0 r, d/ i; W, b. q, q7 n
华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 ; P8 s) k( T3 {( s' q& W2 o' G0 p, n% G9 T1 U9 v8 s
英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。+ _) f. s. o$ H* \
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在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 $ M% F0 k# ?. b' r) R, s0 m% K- L! q$ T/ H! Q( C
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 $ O! A$ {: C2 y4 G 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。6 D. Y2 {( J. @1 M7 A
" {/ X3 i- v+ U6 v( O 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。! O6 V8 n8 V, m2 j
: D. _ ?$ T5 v% J$ a- }/ ]8 d （责任编辑：杨海洋） : M, [0 L" C# j q3 d/ F+ D. W3 C5 _- @ }' V+ Y- w
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters % p" ^6 [- m0 a' b v 2 j- u0 p7 q, B3 IBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. & w- ?# d7 ^; @5 m, N+ C ! C- \* F" l9 a$ dA productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 9 m) R) r6 N8 K0 j$ B5 h ( I/ ~9 t5 C( u8 OLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 7 @' c( d3 C. B. l- R. b ! z# [3 x; m; k/ J: n/ I+ sAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ) w6 L3 r4 f+ v7 @! W" P
8 {2 m1 X0 ?( p( [ N- wRoss Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 2 _& L- v8 X, p/ l6 y/ P1 o2 l+ ]' {; o S$ f0 c! F) |4 b
First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 0 j, ^7 E. w1 I. }0 c" Y+ i2 i3 [) A
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ) _8 D0 O" C4 Q4 v% J
4 I: O% k! t' X ]# V3 N"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. $ V( n6 d' `& V) x1 L 4 U7 E q/ X' n, ?In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. $ n' _! r2 u6 G* B/ X
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 4 U1 X$ ?! |, g6 ^9 R U. h. H
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That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. - ^4 ?( g4 j0 p- l) ?' I/ j
/ Y; D9 A8 m- S% t* M! q8 }! xUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 5 D' Q9 E) ?5 ^% V5 G5 ]" J. L$ a
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". 1 Q1 Z9 M4 O6 B/ f. H
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If he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. / f4 e; y, b, @2 S+ k1 J) d3 F( S4 t3 o0 o8 ]
International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. 1 I3 [5 J2 r9 j2 ` K( X) i
# x2 B7 F1 a6 L& R6 V" ?3 C$ W. a"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. " P. m: z2 W2 T- k9 A6 ?5 u1 a- g+ _; O1 e0 J2 u( h. p2 H3 z
Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. ) Y/ C W. H3 X7 N+ s1 [( ~/ [# Y5 |/ D% F( V
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
