4 C3 U0 c& y' e$ dRunning with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters7 d' {; {. k) I) a
4 M# @) c5 h1 ^5 BBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 5 i2 \4 x% D6 X4 y+ f
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 7 ?) v& u" I* u. p% r1 k9 Y7 B' g# \+ V+ S) ^+ }
Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. ' g% T- W+ s6 ?& G) ^4 ~7 `
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. # `8 L7 J K& P/ _8 U+ I/ }- z
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Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 1 ^' [7 S' O" F8 f& j
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First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. ' l5 a3 L8 k- @0 m
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This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. , z1 M. ~4 [! _- ^6 x7 p5 I1 b
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. ; H3 G& N( g: r
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In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. 9 ^* b" t3 R6 f* w% r 3 T( K' H+ c; g" g* `# TGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. . s* C0 J) Q/ Q1 _5 ~8 H
$ _! N1 i4 `! i5 u$ U0 GThat headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. - |4 b9 ?% y- u+ f' |8 `- p& S0 O: v+ c% o. Q
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 3 X$ j u" p4 `" ?' @; W. G( V t- d
China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ) f5 [# A4 r' R* M
5 Y! x& _4 H. }2 k8 _) J+ V' LIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 1 @) X# n- f, `
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International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. & @% ?$ z" s1 Y6 |% e: r8 K- D 1 Y3 t5 g. \# U8 s# k"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. ( ^( o; q) v, I! D5 f8 o ( S. D7 ~% C, d. Z5 ~* R) _Garnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. 0 E, r4 ~' V1 o8 | Z4 H* `8 g6 [ b) _4 l/ V( ^
Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
