外媒：中国经济实力赶上美国至少需10年, i+ x( {) w; _- [7 w
2010年08月19日 14:15 来源：中新社 黄瑞 9 P! x; u2 X/ g& ]; Q, X, R! }9 G, x" N3 P
K- P! F. u. E5 E+ }1 R中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 6 c" p# v' H: S1 `, V , n# M% {* h* u9 U 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。0 \7 e; c- X# n# g c7 f
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英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。- L" @9 {+ k% y. W! q! S
" c7 I" v* s( p- c- I) Y 在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。) f. @3 }& v4 `0 u' I' w
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金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。! {8 G2 b% o' Q2 }0 g
华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 6 a# l# t' h( P. W+ x2 n* W" e( {& I3 C; x
比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。2 z% ]& s5 g( y
9 g9 d( x+ K( ?7 o7 G; ?3 Z （责任编辑：杨海洋） 0 H" K/ W; \$ Q/ p* g+ o 4 {' P+ z: [/ V+ }Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters8 V& Y3 z E0 B5 b, l& V7 W3 z4 ?7 `
3 U& e" T/ K" N; ^: oBEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. % a- W# }5 U$ k3 G# V) h3 C& Q- O$ a, T$ N
A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. . u9 m' d5 y3 l% n0 [( n5 X$ X
; o3 y, U- d% \: H7 b( rLet's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. 8 B& L6 d1 w8 Z! p# E
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After investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. ' [+ D+ A5 e, D$ I9 Q1 X. A' z2 S* G4 V( ?$ P8 q
Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 5 d3 b1 l( w+ d) r5 ?6 `) n9 Z
2 V/ a" m% q$ |3 q. U8 ?First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 2 _/ V8 P+ `! W1 _( \; p4 k( J / k* ?* m a$ w! \9 R3 \This is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. : t! Z$ `) V& X, O! i) w
& Q( i9 G, }3 h, F( e' D) O"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. k. X& }3 G$ W; d% ]- q; A
# K- b( l$ w& n: p/ z' ~8 X) {1 u9 fIn this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. ; G4 r) c- C d4 C8 V, {9 P
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Garnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. + f) Y! S3 F; C" @2 A# G/ Q2 z( F% ~. \$ J/ v. v8 V$ \2 V( l5 h6 @
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. $ G( I& @/ k; J2 b4 d8 z0 [8 t( L2 c H# y5 X: b, H
Urbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. + Q# T1 B# S/ T4 D) t& n W
. p- ~- J9 d. ] ]China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". / I5 @4 t6 G' W6 t% @0 u9 J
: u/ m- } W6 \, b) B( K4 o/ d% GIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. $ R6 x0 Y4 X, P3 H- S | , {2 {/ c9 F3 {) |International Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. ' h: A9 t* g- M0 ]* p; q( ^4 o/ b# r$ X
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. / e2 n8 R" ]5 V p+ X$ D ( J6 {6 _# U' B0 }: YGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. - `+ D5 D! e/ G& d1 s
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Think high-speed trains, not plastic toys.作者: wahahaha 时间: 2010-8-31 09:26
