7 f, B1 e0 L) v g; B( V" _中新社北京8月19日电 (黄瑞)2010年第2季度中国GDP超越日本的消息一经公布，迅即引起西方媒体对中国未来经济走向的广泛讨论。华尔街日报称，以现在的经济增长速度，中国仍需要10年甚至更长的时间，赶上美国世界第一的经济地位。 + y" i5 B8 k$ }3 A2 w4 j " D) w: D/ y! q. D. ~9 p" X 华尔街日报一篇题为《中国产量赶超日本》的报道分析，尽管中国有望在今年全年GDP总量上超过日本，成为世界第二大经济体，然中国全年约5万亿美元的经济总量与美国将近15万亿美元的经济总量之间，仍存在巨大的差距。 # B! T1 @8 b' ?9 _6 [" k * T. o" ^: O/ c4 l( e 英国金融时报分析了中国经济面临的严重问题，并称这些问题却被外界所忽视。在其刊登的《中国的跳跃预示着世界权利之转移》报道援引中国社科院金融发展研究中心主任易宪容评论说，当我们谈及中国经济时，应该避免高估中国的力量；中国存在巨大的贫富差距和地区发展不平衡，若这些问题无法得到解决，中国GDP的高速增长将失去意义。 4 Z6 K7 |; q/ _/ \) L/ ~. h* h2 A, Z! I2 k
在路透社的评论文章《与公牛赛跑：对2020年中国经济的乐观看法》里，澳大利亚国立大学经济学教授罗斯·加诺特对中国经济的未来作出了积极判断。他说，中国将进入一个更高质量的经济增长期，尤其是在中国廉价劳动力无限供应已成为历史的情况下。 4 k; ^( z( E% A' b; @: x; h g5 f, g- q' L2 R0 k
金融时报表示，当GDP排名上升为中国带来更多外界审视之际、当世界对中国在国际舞台上承担责任有更多期待之时，如何确立与其他地区之间的关系，对中国政府来说至关重要。 ( @% ~, e' z( \3 N+ B) s7 B2 E 华尔街日报分析了中国现阶段采取的对外战略。为了巩固自身的国际地位、避免令周边国家感到受威胁，中国已开始强调“和平崛起”，并积极拓展文化交流领域。 : H \; o m) k% B7 E/ T. X 1 ^& p$ a2 U. ^" T) | 比较中国与日本的经济发展，金融时报指出，在更为重要的购买力方面，中国在近十年前已超过日本，而中国的季度GDP总值超过日本，则更多的与汇率及统计方法有关；为了说明这点，经济学家会告诉你，两个国家使用相同材料和人工，建造一样的房屋，日本创造的国内生产总值是中国的3倍，原因在于日本所花费的一切成本均比中国高出很多。 % f; |) K* v3 }( u, q# L. l0 @0 O( p+ S5 ]7 a* ~. A$ _! I& R# M （责任编辑：杨海洋） . }6 z2 h) `* J2 z) s- Z0 i+ t, p, t: ]0 h
Running with the bulls: A rosy view of China in 2020 Source : Reuters 7 G0 f# X6 [- w4 R3 M0 {9 E0 H6 ]& V- e% D) z( R$ S( F/ m1 g
BEIJING: By 2020, China is entering its fifth decade of sustained growth. The trade surpluses that used to strain the global economy have shrunk into insignificance as the Middle Kingdom's consumption steadily grows. 0 e/ ~; x( e1 X2 v
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A productive workforce is much better paid, lancing the boil of a widening income gap. Purchasing power has surged thanks to a stronger yuan. Beijing is a leader in improving energy efficiency. 9 n B# U+ e2 V
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Let's leave aside worries of a property bubble and a new crop of bad loans. Forget the spectre of protectionism. # ~, T/ y! T. _) u9 r' Y
8 m' K) w: [3 k5 D8 j3 u, gAfter investors' bearish reaction last week to a moderate slowdown in economic growth in July, it's time to make again the unabashed long-term bullish case for China. & H$ H* n2 Z; r. B / d- K6 V( W+ W! T6 T, J& d8 _Ross Garnaut, an economics professor at the Australian National University in Canberra, is among those confident that China is about to enter an era of higher-quality growth, not least because demographics dictate that unlimited supplies of cheap labour will soon be a thing of the past. 2 u# H7 p4 j- A! {* } ! Z. I, f: Z" E) G) e- F3 \First and foremost, there will be large and continuing increases in real wages and in the wage share of income, Garnaut wrote in the East Asia Forum, an online newsletter. 3 U! ~2 T" J- Z/ A% i
, d8 D, k3 s1 f6 |8 PThis is critical. Pay has risen briskly in China, but profits and the government's share of national income have risen even faster, squeezing workers. ( y( P' ^' l7 {8 z- N7 ~! K/ `3 w) J7 A: s9 f8 e- H
"The powerful tendency since the 1980s towards increased inequality in income distribution is likely to be reversed," Garnaut wrote. $ T' k- V- W* A' r- X( h, e$ N& N/ M9 W! ]- _
In this virtuous circle, spending will rise and the national savings rate will fall, thus reducing China's external surpluses and easing tensions with Beijing's trading partners. - @3 x2 @2 b1 o# v9 {; [& _$ A. W& ~% d 0 b/ G' I. M h2 p8 C6 D" X( R% DGarnaut said there was no basis for assuming that a shrinking workforce, which is set to contract from around 2015, would dent the productivity gains; the economy could keep expanding at close to the near double-digit average of the past 30 years of market reform. 5 U* Q2 E" r7 `* @( |7 l2 o$ t( q# O: c! y- S
That headlong growth catapulted China past Japan last quarter to become the world's second-largest economy, according to an estimate on Monday by Japan's Cabinet Office. 5 M2 l/ C6 s* ~/ _/ _0 N
3 `; E, _% P* j& P% a/ q* A7 }9 S. FUrbanisation, development of the interior and investment in a low-carbon economy will sustain growth at more than 9 per cent in the coming decade, according to Li Daokui, an economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 5 m- A* x4 E; _% C
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China, Lie said, is set to enjoy a "golden period". ( p! \) U3 m! G" A4 ^. ~8 O" H8 G
% R% O( b# R5 W1 UIf he's right, the consequences for the rest of the world will be far-reaching. 0 A% [' V. N' D' w
7 U9 n+ i* ?9 t" m! EInternational Monetary Fund economists Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis calculate that, over the last two decades, a per centage point extra Chinese growth is correlated with an average rise of 0.5 percentage point in other countries' growth. % e9 W) _4 }8 H1 {3 w. ^! I, E& E6 u; r0 V+ R, I
"Moreover, while China's spillovers initially only mattered for neighbouring countries, the importance of distance has diminished over time," they wrote in a working paper. 4 j3 X C2 I% E$ G: p) b ) y: m; t! I7 K0 t: M, o9 _% kGarnaut reckons even richer vistas could open up for the likes of India as China's comparative advantage shifts to technologically complex goods from simple manufactures. * F5 l! P0 [8 a9 l, v
