把2000亿美元的外汇储备投资出去，对于中国新成立的国家外汇投资公司的经理们来说似乎并不太难，但他们却面对着一个新烦恼：日益增长的金融保护主义(Financial Protectionism)。 / {: G; r3 i; f' l( N- d7 B- B9 v0 c6 V0 u e7 _5 c6 A
在摩根士丹利2007年的一次论坛上，“金融保护主义”这个词第一次被一些经济师和策略师使用，以描述新兴市场公司在试图取得发达市场公司战略性股权时面临的壁垒。1 Y' K0 ? f; ~0 A- d2 U& U
( Y0 K; Y2 Y8 a1 @+ D+ d9 H! M; y国际先驱论坛报7月9日的文章指出，从德国到加拿大再到日本等国的政府，正在考虑限制被象中国外汇投资公司这样的“主权财富基金”(sovereign wealth funds)进行收购。 [- `# m; o5 r# R: K% |5 t9 V5 X2 c' Y3 s
这种挑战对中国而言可能尤为艰难。因为西方舆论法庭已经裁定中国保持人民币币值偏低正在摧毁西方的制造业，包括轮胎、牙膏和玩具火车被召回事件，又使中国的形象进一步受损。 - r( u, a1 x8 k/ \9 d" m+ p/ q W$ ]
现在中国又成立了一个拥有2000亿美元外汇资金的投资公司，要从全球的金融资产中寻求更高的回报。设在北京的金融咨询公司Dragonomics负责人阿瑟.克罗勃(Arthur Kroeber)说：“很清楚，投资保护主义已成一个主要担心。” 7 G6 B# _7 O0 M+ \' N8 X5 c9 g+ }. D# W; G& B) `* p
克罗勃指出，随着中国的外汇储备正以每天10亿美元的速度增长，其种子资金可能会在10年内代表政府管理上万亿美元的外汇储备，这样中国的对手就会把描绘为“邪恶和共产主义”。“这将是相当棘手的，”克罗勃说，中国国家外汇投资公司要想让别人相信自己的意图是良好的，“可不是件容易的事儿。” f+ B0 o" Z) A. E* w! \
; P: i# l& B' v文章称，那么这个被中国媒体称为将有2000亿美元基金的中国投资公司将会如何运转呢？中国媒体称，过去的5年，是中国产品占领世界消费品市场的5年，中国的贸易顺差回过头来投资在世界金融市场，使国际收益率曲线扁平化，进而抬高了金融资产价格。* I p/ T' g2 U" o7 Z4 j, G
9 V; N* U8 H! ~1 l. X0 _莱昂斯提到了美国国会对中国竞购优尼科公司的反应，以及美国国会以国家安全为由要求迪拜世界港口公司放弃美国港口的情况。不过，莱昂斯还说，主权财富基金由来已久。例如新加坡投资公司和科威特投资局自上个世纪80年代就已经存在。那么究竟是什么发生了改变呢？ " ^9 d% F z0 Y( ?( G; H" D0 ?$ }& S
美国的观点似乎是，事情变得越来越严重，因为这些“主权财富基金”的规模越来越大。洛厄里说：“新的现象是，主权财富基金的数量越来越多，而且它们的规模也越来越大。”根据洛厄里所引用的摩根士丹利公司公布的数据，主权财富基金目前掌握了全球金融资产的约2.5%。摩根士丹利说，再过10年，这一比例将上升到9%。 . G" Y4 \7 [, v9 c4 l! u* m D$ L6 A) l+ {2 d
0 t7 C! N9 m5 Z3 r8 d6 y$ T. _Financial protectionism may prove challenge to China $ @ m: ]* D [+ E1 t- f1 a" S ( c$ f) J: D3 U! g; s- n2 m2 k" C8 \, C$ q" ~$ a
BEIJING: As if it weren't hard enough to invest $200 billion, the managers of China's new state asset agency face a new headache: growing financial protectionism. 8 p% |3 _" t3 ^: T, ]4 W5 c2 V* `6 O9 h8 Q* L$ A2 l8 `
From Germany to Canada and Japan, governments are considering curbing takeovers by sovereign wealth funds like China's of companies deemed strategically important or vital to national security.) c# M" _ T2 A' ^0 i! R* u
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The challenge could be particularly tough for China.0 s; ?" k. b7 r' B% ]9 a
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Already convicted in the court of Western public opinion for destroying manufacturing jobs by keeping its currency low, China's image has been further tarnished lately by a string of recalled "Made in China" goods including tires, toothpaste and toy trains. : t: r1 u5 I% ]; b |, s0 }' I9 T' ~' J t$ X/ o0 `- k# C) d
Now it is setting up a $200 billion fund mandated to seek out higher returns from financial assets around the globe. . U! o j) ~7 Q& F; v S3 I/ | ( K$ n, p3 V) e" Z"Investment protectionism is clearly a major concern," said Arthur Kroeber with Dragonomics, a Beijing consultancy." N$ R. A7 p4 j! w1 x5 m
0 g3 Q% e$ Q1 r, ]9 |: XWith China's foreign exchange reserves growing by about $1 billion a day, the embryonic fund could have trillions of dollars to manage within a decade on behalf of a government that its foes can portray as "evil and Communist," Kroeber said. Y4 T0 }0 B' W % ~) c) [) V% w4 ]"It's going to be tricky," he said. "It's going to be not easy for them to convince people that their intentions are benign."' Y" T% ^* g2 d& u% Z
; t8 |4 c z, dSo how will the fund, which state media say will be called China Investment Co., go about investing $200 billion?! e2 S' ?7 i' k2 k% Y1 \7 X
2 D' Q, B6 ^8 @% f. V; wThe agency is likely to be up and running by September. / c. Z( [0 G7 a( s. a% U7 e8 Q% x5 h1 ^
Adrian Foster, director of capital markets with Dresdner Kleinwort in Beijing, said he expected China to invest "below the radar screen" so it does not attract the sort of political scrutiny that wrecked the state oil company Cnooc's $18.5 billion bid for California rival Unocal in 2005. ) J( Y4 P& d# p2 m2 p / B; @0 x1 H# }$ _9 Y& U8 o"They're aware of the backlash, and it's one reason to think their investment horizon will expand very slowly," Foster said. "They'll be very slow and steady in diversifying."! s, x _% \5 h5 p3 R
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Foster said equities would be an obvious investment choice for the new fund. ! z8 q0 [* A* i& n/ ]% F: a h; `! t: |% M. C
Buying small stakes in publicly listed companies that need not be disclosed would enable Beijing to avoid the publicity that came with its $3 billion acquisition of a 10 percent stake in Blackstone Group, the U.S. private equity group.1 G1 L# d. w8 n" x9 F. F
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"That sort of high-profile investment is likely to be the exception rather than the rule going forward because it does draw attention to those sovereign wealth funds and what they're doing," Foster argued. 7 |0 l L2 d: u7 C' H2 Q+ e: Q! X0 M F4 i, T5 X% A
Kroeber takes a different view. Buying into Blackstone would partly insulate China from political risk. "If you buy direct controlling stakes in companies, people get mad," he said.5 F7 q1 d+ |, ?) k- [( |5 z6 i
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Kroeber suspected that China, as part of the deal, would send some rising stars to Blackstone to learn investing skills." W& T0 r2 r; K/ C
U7 z8 \0 i: k: mIn doing so, he said, China would be emulating Singapore's Government Investment Corp. In its early days, the corporation took minority stakes in a string of financial firms to which it assigned young staffers to learn about markets and investment.9 ~* |3 n6 v8 t- F6 p# o
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Hong Liang, chief China economist for Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong, said the fund clearly intended to groom in-house managers. % H. A" m( Z4 f, ^. ^8 \2 Y- f( L7 M+ d
China already requires firms to offer training when it farms out part of its $1.2 trillion in reserves - now invested largely in bonds - to outside asset managers, she noted.# E) B. r8 F& Z( x3 S0 P5 ~
/ {' S; y2 o7 Q+ Y"Every time they give an outsourcing mandate they always require training. They always want to learn. That's understandable," Liang said.( N7 ~3 p1 Y' K
8 j5 _9 K$ Z* OThat being the case, Kroeber said he expected more Blackstone-type deals.
