美国《新闻周刊》最新一期载文《没多少人害怕巨龙》，摘要如下： ; _9 y, S- H" O; J
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突然之间，中国龙看上去不再那么可怕。几年来，中国的领导人和外交官们一直致力于将他们的国家描绘得温文尔雅、睦邻友好。/ Q0 z9 h, G( I. `. |( b
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$ F( t6 A8 z9 T- E. C7 N8 R 现在，本周公布的一项新的全球观点调查显示，他们的努力已见成效。许多地区曾发自内心地担忧中国的崛起会对它的贸易竞争者、历史对手和政治批评家们造成灾难。这种担忧现在已经减弱。同时，中国正在力图“和平崛起”的举动显然已经开始影响全球一些人的心灵和思想。 1 D( P g" d' P" q) h& M* b# G3 }* a V4 H' ` k; m! e
芝加哥全球事务学会和世界民意调查组织联合全世界研究中心所做的这项调查发现，14个被调查国家中的8个国家的大多数公民现在预计，中国将最终在经济上赶上美国，但他们对这一前景完全不担心。每个被调查国家中只有不到三分之一的被调查者认为，中国的崛起“主要是负面的”，而大多数国家的多数人认为具有混合的或积极的影响。 ; Y8 s4 i. E8 S/ y% W& C9 G& t X) { \9 W. N
这一调查从本质上反映了中国的崛起，这是全球力量的结构性转变，引发了“低调、沉着的”国际反应。相比之下，根据当时的民调显示，日本在20世纪80年代成为一个经济大国引发了巨大的担忧。 $ B) a8 H& p5 @$ E1 z& i3 L
* n# k# h+ S/ S9 z" Y! g! e+ T. S 自由贸易显然是中国魅力的核心也可能解释了外国人能够忽略一些问题的原因。调查显示，在亚洲内部，人们赞同与中国签署自由贸易协定，而且设置的障碍更低。 % d( A: J; h6 g0 `3 T
/ M3 j8 H( E( N' J4 n- v 在亚洲以外，赞成与中国进行自由贸易的声音似乎较弱。被调查的美国人中，大约有56%的人说，他们反对与中国签署自由贸易协定。这与美国和欧洲对外包和竞争的担忧以及保护主义情绪上升相一致。 7 w& W2 F7 Y- z" Q# @5 H
8 o( g8 k8 l# `* ]% d" r6 i 也许最令人惊讶的是，平均起来中国人对国家经济的上升还不如其他许多国家的人乐观。被调查的大陆人中，只有一半认为他们的经济能赶上美国，而持这种观点的美国人有60%，以色列人有75%。也许这些中国人知道一些外人所不知的情况，或者在儒家传统中，他们对国家的许多成就更加谦虚。 2 }' D" T: U3 j0 J& X4 {5 t- _3 N- b: q5 [( c. i& x
1 F- F0 {% J0 e& TFew Fear the Dragon # s# [9 V7 r- s/ y# H! H8 YA new global poll shows that most countries expect China to soon outpace the U.S.—and they're OK with that. ( @! Q6 ?5 P2 c8 @1 n ) c0 |; ]% g9 t3 }+ F0 O" O& YJune 4, 2007 issue - Suddenly, the Chinese dragon doesn't look so scary. For several years, Beijing's leaders and diplomats have labored hard to portray their homeland as benign, well mannered and neighborly. Now a new global opinion survey out this week suggests their efforts have paid off. The once visceral fear felt in many quarters that China's rise would spell disaster for its business competitors, historical foes and political critics alike has dulled, while Beijing's ongoing campaign to cast its renaissance as what President Hu Jintao calls a "peaceful rising" has apparently begun to sway at least some hearts and minds around the globe. * m( i3 `/ v, w2 Y ' `) d1 _- w& j5 g* D0 ^7 S$ }* tThe key finding of the poll, which was conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and WorldPublicOpinion.org in conjunction with research centers around the world, is that a majority of citizens in 8 of 14 countries surveyed (and a plurality in 4) now expect that China will eventually catch up with the United States economically—yet they're utterly unconcerned by the prospect. Less than a third of respondents in every country surveyed believe China's rise will be "mostly negative," with majorities in most countries anticipating a mixed or positive outcome. That's not to say the dragon has suddenly morphed into a cuddly panda. Surprisingly—indeed, paradoxically—the survey also reveals that a majority or near majority of respondents in most countries don't trust China to act responsibly beyond its borders, and most Asians outside China, wary of Beijing's military build-up, favor an ongoing U.S. security presence in the region. & A3 C& w0 a' c " _' p' d# h8 |6 ^1 W/ L+ W. n E2 Q $ {5 K2 {+ T0 M S M* W4 kTo illustrate this mistrust, consider that China's global score on this attribute is now virtually the same as that of the United States—which has seen its popularity slide precipitously since the 1990s, due in large part to the Iraq War and the arrogance it seemed to indicate. Both states were deemed untrustworthy global actors in 10 of 15 countries surveyed. That China ranks alongside a rival trapped in a far-flung military quagmire of its own making suggests that Beijing still has plenty of work to do rehabilitating its image. "People see China ascending to a top level in the world and they're responding in a pretty sanguine fashion," says pollster Steven Kull, director of the University of Maryland's program on international policy (which participated in the survey). "At the same time they haven't been snowed by it, either." 0 l& V' x/ N, i* a% ]; b9 w , i7 K+ L1 T9 E# U1 }, K! m% X7 X$ y% `" M' S; Q9 L2 f7 o
Maybe not, but the country's standing has definitely risen from the days when China exported revolution internationally like it now exports toys and TVs, and Chairman Mao topped the Western world's rogues' gallery. In essence, the survey reveals that China's rise, an event representing a tectonic shift in global power, elicits an international response "that is largely low-key" and "almost philosophical," says Kull. In contrast, he notes, Japan's emergence as an economic giant in the 1980s generated far more anxiety, according to opinion polls taken at the time., e0 v1 x" X Y: [5 ]
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Free trade is clearly central to China's allure and may explain foreigners' readiness to overlook its less savory aspects. Within Asia, the survey shows, citizens favor free-trade agreements with China and the lower barriers they offer. Half of respondents in South Korea say they advocate free trade with their giant neighbor, for example (two thirds of Koreans also favor one with Japan); and in Thailand, support for such pacts with China, Japan and the United States tops 60 percent. Likewise, most Chinese surveyed advocate similar deals with Japan and the United States. All of which makes perfect sense in the context of an ongoing regional trade boom linking China—increasingly the region's assembly hub (it finishes products made from components or materials built elsewhere) —to supply chains that stretch from Tokyo to Mumbai. The finding also illustrates the extraordinarily fast pace at which former rival economies are now integrating. 9 \. q0 v4 H- b9 ]8 S; M! ~( o4 D! @
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Outside Asia, support for unfettered commercial links to the Middle Kingdom appears weaker. Some 56 percent of Americans surveyed said they opposed a free-trade deal with China. This jibes with a surge in fear of outsourcing and competition and an uptick of protectionist sentiment in the United States and Europe. ( L2 _* y0 u- p8 | & Y7 b$ S$ \0 n8 w# s* ~ ) e+ a0 L9 u9 @, MIn Africa (a continent unrepresented in the survey), China's emergence as the largest outside investor and trading partner is also seen as a mixed blessing. In late 2006, a Sino-African summit in Shanghai attracted leaders from 48 African countries, many of whom praised Beijing's pledge to double trade with Africa to $100 billion by 2010. But China's single-minded pursuit of raw materials and the way it has flooded local markets with low-cost clothing and other goods have raised concerns that the African economy will remain extraction-based and never achieve the kind of manufacturing-led revival Asia managed in the 1960s. & H9 y/ Z) W8 N) i, _. Q; A0 f1 `/ Q, m" F# |
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Beijing's noninterventionist posture and willingness to court Africa's most repressive regimes also feeds global mistrust. Just last month, the G8 industrialized powers warned that Beijing's "official lending practices" in Africa—namely the sweetheart loans given in exchange for exclusive exploration and mining rights—threaten to undermine debt-relief efforts there and leave countries "overwhelmed by their debts." China's general support for the murderous Sudanese government, despite some tentative recent moves by Beijing to pressure Khartoum on Darfur, has also seriously tarnished China's global image. China has invested almost $2.5 billion in energy and hydropower projects in the country (its largest single stake on the continent), and in April the two governments agreed to strengthen military cooperation. Reacting to pressure from the West, Beijing recently dispatched a special envoy to Darfur to help resolve the conflict, but the effort has yet to bear fruit—which may help explain why China generally ranks so low on the trustworthiness scale.( r$ d9 ^/ N- T9 ^7 y
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China has also run into trouble in Asia for maintaining close ties with repressive regimes in North Korea and Burma. In fact, the survey found that significant support for America's cold-war-era security umbrella still exists in the region, despite the widespread sense that "the U.S. military presence in East Asia could be a threat to [local countries'] vital interests." In South Korea, for example, 67 percent of respondents identified GIs as a potential hindrance to regional stability, yet 74 percent nonetheless said they hoped to see U.S. troop levels either increase or stay the same in the future. (The United States currently deploys some 75,000 combat personnel in Northeast Asia, mostly in Japan and South Korea.) % q$ N* T/ u% m1 t0 ]) h; O7 ]& A0 ~' d3 {; u& U% Y- E
- G* ^- J+ H2 {1 W, X4 @The survey suggests that Beijing, which advocates a smaller U.S. military footprint in Asia, has yet to win many converts to that cause, and may be undermining its "peaceful rise" conceit with its own military buildup. In South Korea, nine of 10 people surveyed called China's military expansion threatening; 73 percent of Indians asked expressed the same view. Of the 15 nations surveyed, only China had a clear majority (64 percent) calling for U.S. troop reductions in Asia; 71 percent also said that America's regional military presence could challenge China's "vital interests" in the next decade. Taiwan is one potential flash point; the island has a defense pact with Washington, yet Beijing considers Taiwan a renegade province and vows to bring it back into the fold, by force if necessary. "Many people find China's preoccupation with Taiwan so inexplicable they can't believe there isn't more to it," says Shelly Rigger, a Taiwan expert at Davidson College. "The issue reinforces the perception that China cares more about winning than playing nicely in the global community." 5 s5 V9 t8 E0 u& e3 m3 _; x/ X0 a' | ?9 C
6 [: c4 z# h7 `$ vInterestingly, the survey highlighted a perception rift on Japan. Chinese are unhappy with Tokyo's new, more assertive military posture and the fact that it may revise its so-called Peace Constitution (which renounces war as a sovereign right). The poll found that China views such steps as akin to the militarization that led Japan to become an imperialist power a century ago. But few outside China agree. In the survey, Tokyo scores better as a global citizen than either Beijing or Washington, with pluralities in 9 of 16 countries stating they trusted Japan to act responsibly in world affairs—though 81 percent in South Korea and 79 percent in China hold the opposite view. Meanwhile, of Japanese surveyed for the Pew Global Attitudes Project last year, 93 percent expressed negative views of China's rising military power in Asia. " }+ u1 Q+ V7 ]7 `$ o4 t' Q; G- Q2 r1 F8 e: H4 l
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Perhaps most surprising, Chinese are on average less optimistic about their country's economic ascent than is much of the outside world. Just half of the mainlanders surveyed believe their economy will ever catch up with the United States', compared with 60 percent in the United States and 75 percent in Israel. Perhaps these Chinese know something outsiders don't, or, in the Confucian tradition, are simply more humble about their country's many achievements. The simplest explanation for the disparity, however, is that China's economic surge—and all the talk about the country's "peaceful rise"—is not as evident at home as it is abroad. Perhaps Chinese better understand the myriad threats that could divert the country's ascent. Then again, there could still be another phenomenon at work: that most Chinese are simply too busy pursuing their own dreams to ponder whether their country is more like a fire-breathing lizard or a fuzzy panda bear. $ {+ F0 {% w, @8 f7 T% Y : S, h7 \( ?# y: I9 Y0 @
