/ l+ O1 J" G Q' s* ]& g( H部分观察家期望胡锦涛的实权能更少些,而不是象毛泽东或邓小平般同时掌握中国军队。 不过,自从胡锦涛在2003年取代江泽民后,大部分分析师推测,若胡锦涛想拥有同江泽民般对军队的掌控,或是建立起自己的力量,均需要一段时间。 另一方面,胡锦涛也企图以各种方式建立起自己的权威,包括提拔忠于自己的官员。 从演说与军方报纸、杂志的报告中,也可看出胡锦涛想成为军方领袖与思想佳的企图心;在这些演说中,胡锦涛赞扬军方准备在高科技战争中的实力累积。 分析家说,胡锦涛在演说中引用的毛泽东、邓小平与江泽民思想,展现了胡锦涛想塑造的形象:一个重视传统,但朝着现代化迈进的领袖。虽然胡锦涛的背景是一位工程师和人民领袖,但他所穿着的,实际上是橄榄绿的军衣。 在胡锦涛之下,军方持续享受国家每年对军方增加的预算款项,这笔预算除了用在军备上外,还用于资深官员的生活方面。 尽管部分年轻官员认为中国军队应成为一个完全专业的力量、对国家忠诚,而不是对统治党忠诚,但分析家认为胡锦涛仍想加强本身对军方的控制。 胡锦涛的想法在今年4月份的共党杂志《求实》上得到强化。国防大学上将赵可铭写道,军方需抵抗那些呼吁军政分开的言论。 “我们必须自始至终支持中国共产党的实权。”赵可铭说。 , W4 ~6 }! Q5 H5 Y; ^ / z% y& F. m' Q i. L' t+ y" C C) B8 w. i! N0 }& ^3 N
& f9 ]( ~& W( j! V+ X! u8 m; cChinese soldiers at a welcoming ceremony in Beijing on Friday for President Jalal Talabani of Iraq. % V9 d. v0 J9 {6 C
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% F2 |7 _; C+ f/ E' R# yA mystery in Beijing: Who runs the military? 9 }# W9 F, e: h8 J# t, p ~4 ^3 e / v, n4 g& @4 m' s4 H ( S$ C9 |* W2 Q C8 xBEIJING: As China converts its growing economic power into military muscle, a lack of transparency and a habit of secrecy pose formidable challenges in assessing the country's long-term ambitions, according to defense experts.) K2 N; X0 y. W* z, k: z
; d! ~# w7 |8 ? A B' M' CFor foreign governments and analysts monitoring the Chinese military, one of the biggest mysteries is who is actually in charge." z7 |5 ^: \- |2 Y
# R- R U5 T0 }7 kNominally, President Hu Jintao, who is also chairman of the Central Military Commission, the top military command body, is head of the armed forces, but there is considerable doubt among experts about the extent of the authority that he and his fellow civilian leaders exert over the 2.3 million-strong People's Liberation Army. " A2 i' E1 Z. Y7 Z 1 N, c5 ^$ @$ s"I think Hu Jintao is still facing some challenges from top generals," said Philip Yang, an expert on the Chinese military and a professor of international relations at the National Taiwan University. "Especially those with their own agenda from the different services and others with their own agenda and perceptions about changes in the outside world, particularly in East Asia."8 C& t* b7 h0 M/ r' {2 N' a4 D% L
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For China's neighbors and regional military powers, including the United States, this lack of knowledge about China's military decision-making is frustrating attempts to understand a buildup that could shift the balance of power in Asia. 6 B( k t0 ~$ y: y% ]! _' f' J1 H0 t3 t 7 H% V# p, J' T! ]6 L7 tSome of China's broad goals are clear from military publications, the speeches of senior leaders and the type and numbers of new weapons deployed.+ g) q: N* }+ E7 k
0 A- t) |2 t4 K2 u% O$ rThe army's primary mission remains preserving the Communist Party's monopoly on power and protecting senior leaders.$ L, R8 y7 j8 ^7 t" p$ n9 P A
. A( w$ A; G8 b4 i* F, m3 N" B PIn addition to defending Chinese territory, most Chinese and foreign analysts agree that Beijing aims to build a force capable of enforcing its claim of sovereignty over Taiwan. " N+ h; o L% C* _" |6 o6 C $ G @ e; {5 N+ pBut China's current thinking about when force is justified or what perceived threats are driving its accumulation of firepower remains unclear for most foreign governments and analysts.: }* P7 L8 E/ ?) u5 C
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Some foreign military analysts believe that there is now considerable debate under way in the Chinese military about the role of pre-emptive force in some circumstances including the use of nuclear weapons. 8 S2 ~. F, Z, L8 l0 | - ` p0 [2 _2 R6 @9 |- s3 zThe Bush administration has repeatedly complained about this lack of transparency and called for increased military exchanges with Beijing. 2 C% q- E; b W9 y1 X0 Z8 ^, ^" g" U9 F/ F3 J+ a( K
"The outside world has limited knowledge of the motivations, decision making and key capabilities supporting China's military modernization," the Pentagon said in its annual report on China's military power released late last month. "China's leaders have yet to explain adequately the purposes or desired end-states of the PLA's expanding military capabilities." k ~4 f1 o3 R5 _/ c) {) X 3 x0 e2 m. \) b6 v. `2 xSenior Chinese officials reject suggestions that a stronger army poses a threat to regional stability and insist that defense spending is strictly tailored to the country's needs. " L9 `, U" n/ ]. E( c/ [: C, f4 c 9 j4 N: e d- @+ R- ~- bSome influential Chinese analysts say that the PLA has made considerable strides in recent years in explaining its doctrine and spending plans, and they expect this trend to continue.+ g1 S* l* y G3 t3 g
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But they argue that Washington's military support for Taiwan makes it impossible for China to reveal more about its strategic thinking and force structure. $ X0 o2 O6 ]5 w# x2 `. O0 ^* {, D m R! a. C& v' Z
"We have to keep certain secrets in order to have a war-fighting capability," said Shen Dingli, a security expert at Fudan University in Shanghai. "We can't let Taiwan and the U.S. know how we are going to defeat them if the U.S. decides to send forces to intervene in a conflict over Taiwan."6 o" l7 l9 c/ C5 B
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Doubts about the chain of command in China were heightened in the aftermath of the PLA's successful test of an antisatellite missile on Jan. 11 when most analysts concluded that top officials from the Foreign Ministry and civilian bureaucracy were clearly in the dark about the military's plan to shoot down an obsolete weather satellite.0 `; o2 T: q1 T- n. z
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Despite widespread protest from the international community, it took almost two weeks before the Foreign Ministry confirmed the test.2 U; n& V4 ^2 }
9 h) S/ x* L: T+ b0 V! T* z! U7 `! LOther analysts point to an incident in October when one of China's newest conventional submarines approached the U.S. aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk and its battle group in international waters off Okinawa and was only detected when it surfaced near the American ships. $ _* E$ Q9 ]1 M) s2 F! K) e" X; M9 O/ w! }7 Z2 j$ z0 g8 M
U.S. officials played down the incident, but some experts questioned whether China's civilian leadership would have sanctioned what could be seen as a highly provocative move. + P( T, H1 m3 o2 ` _, |- Z" R" \7 M, ]) ]
For some analysts, both incidents could be interpreted as a clear demonstration for Washington of China's growing military capabilities and perhaps evidence that elements in the PLA leadership were less concerned about the diplomatic consequences than their civilian counterparts. & O& }0 M% d1 {) s 8 [$ U7 L: }+ |/ QThere is also evidence that some military officers enjoy far more leeway for criticizing or contradicting official policy in a country where dissent remains tightly controlled.% ~& C+ J- h' i$ t1 R* n; h
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Major General Zhu Chenghu escaped serious censure, according to Chinese officials, after he said in July 2005 that China would respond with nuclear weapons if the United States intervened in a conflict over Taiwan. ; v! N2 i$ }1 k+ e % e( [' O: s! o- d; X, Z% DAmid an international outcry over Zhu's remarks, top civilian bureaucrats were extremely reluctant to criticize him or even comment on his views. . j, p R, p$ X" d, D; Q) I. u 4 R) W7 H+ E1 x" z rTolerance has also been extended to another senior officer and influential thinker, Lieutenant General Liu Yazhou, who has publicly called for political reform in China, a move that would be dangerous for most senior Chinese officials.+ v0 F( i+ E$ J; s0 u
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To some observers, it is to be expected that Hu lacks the authority that revolutionary leaders like Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping exerted over the military after establishing their credentials in resisting the Japanese invasion and then winning the civil war. 6 ]3 o0 R/ L- c6 d! K8 x* U3 W/ I6 K
"Since Deng Xiaoping, no one has had that kind of control or legitimacy," said Yang. ( U; j) e* p8 R1 D# c; _8 s4 P; a! J, f, i9 ^0 N9 s/ r
When Hu succeeded former President Jiang Zemin in 2003 as leader of the state, party and military, most analysts speculated that it would take time for him to match his predecessors' hold over the armed forces and begin building his own power base.( }. T( O2 ]; `( s4 w" B
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There were signs that Hu is attempting to assert his authority through the promotion of loyal senior officers, a crackdown on corruption in the armed forces and the tough disciplinary action against senior officers held responsible for two accidents last year in which about 90 troops were killed.# d$ v2 m# P3 b7 d9 n- W7 }
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Hu is also expected to use the 17th party congress expected to be held in October to promote more of his supporters in the military to top posts.5 h, \' k7 c3 f! G) C# f
5 h' ?7 q) c& p% ?From speeches and reports in military newspapers and magazines, it also appears that Hu has been attempting to demonstrate his credentials as a military leader and thinker. / i; U0 R3 K7 I- |9 i$ t6 N" C4 y4 @ V$ | f1 }
In these speeches, Hu has exhorted the military to accelerate preparations to fight high technology wars in an age where the use of information is crucial on the battlefield. & x+ v+ I3 I f- z. o/ K& {0 q+ p- S+ r# f
Analysts say that his references in these speeches to the military and political thinking of former leaders Mao, Deng and Jiang is an attempt to portray himself as part of a tradition that has directed the modernization of the PLA from a mass, peasant army to a modern, high technology force. 1 U9 v# |: x6 s' Q3 ~, ~) a0 s1 R ; t2 N( Q; {6 z. S9 o1 zUnder Hu, the military has continued to enjoy double-digit annual budget increases to pay for increasingly sophisticated weapons and improved lifestyles for senior officers.6 ^1 K4 Y0 `" E
. i7 Y2 p: w) f }Despite his background as an engineer and civilian bureaucrat, Hu wears an olive green style military tunic - although without badges or insignia - when meeting senior officers or attending parades and functions. - ?* u+ z& x+ R/ _( _- T" I& ~ 3 K! t% q& \4 P ^In what is seen by some analysts as an attempt to consolidate his control, Hu has ruled out suggestions from some younger officers that the Chinese military should become a fully professional force that owes its loyalty to the state rather than the ruling party. * v9 N! f' P4 ~" {: V4 H0 m6 }8 J% T2 p2 h/ ?
In a speech to military delegates to China's annual parliamentary session in March, Hu called for tighter political discipline.7 ^& G( _5 e+ H$ {( S
2 O; u) x7 x5 _5 ^0 m1 C+ zThis view was reinforced in an April edition of the party magazine, Qiushi (Seeking Truth), where General Zhao Keming, the political commissar of China's National Defense University, wrote that the military must resist pressure to distance itself from politics.5 S" C; z7 ^- R
* K. ?4 _# V- O. w; ]1 q d"We must uphold the Chinese Communist Party's absolute leadership over the army from beginning to end," Zhao wrote.0 I3 H0 z3 {5 {" H3 L! D* ?. M
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[ 本帖最后由 日月光 于 2007-6-23 20:43 编辑 ]