/ Z) T3 y. @+ c+ X' v, w% e参与这一对话的预计将包括八国集团的现有成员国──美国、加拿大、法国、德国、意大利、日本、俄罗斯和英国，加上中国、印度和韩国这三个亚洲新兴国家以及澳大利亚、巴西、墨西哥以及南非。这些国家的领导人在应对全球变暖问题上很可能更倾向于支持布什政府更具弹性、更现实的做法，而不同意像默克尔和许多欧洲领导人建议的那样设定限制温室气体排放的具体目标。3 c; F& F; [# t9 I. _
) j9 D9 P8 m0 Q& l( q
默克尔在周末期间承认，由于布什仍拒绝在二氧化碳减排方面作出具体的承诺，她针对气候变化的建议可能无法在八国峰会上得到采纳。默克尔对德国《明镜》周刊(Der Spiegel)说，如果美国不采取行动，其他国家可能也乐于采取等等看的态度。许多欧洲官员担心，布什提出的内容含糊的“反”建议有可能破坏欧盟旨在通过明确的减排承诺来制止气候变化的策略。0 |! K! d# z; f% X: @, {
: z! V3 S% \* ^9 a7 ?" E# s
气候政策方面的分歧以及对美俄冲突以及伊朗核计划等安全危机的更多关注表明，在努力成为探讨长期、全球性经济政策问题的论坛方面，八国集团峰会并非一帆风顺。 9 x$ W0 r) n9 p1 ~ # @& ?: P# T$ o J美国外交协会(Council on Foreign Relations)高级研究员查尔斯•库普坎(Charles Kupchan)说，人们对这些长期性重大问题有许多轻松的探讨，但却没有多少行动，其结果是，八国集团峰会正在演变成大国的清谈俱乐部。- i& l# y; `7 L. [0 r
, q6 P/ {0 H I8 }) L/ ]1 e曾在克林顿政府担任前苏联加盟共和国事务顾问的史蒂夫•塞斯塔诺维奇(Steve Sestanovich)认为1999年的那次八国集团峰会堪称成功的典范，那次会议成了世界主要大国贯彻联合国结束科索沃战争决议的动员会。他说，关键是当时有一个亟待解决的问题，而一旦要在发展的问题(目前似乎是气候变化问题)上充当文明世界的代言人，八国集团的运作效率就没那么高了。+ \% ~0 M5 s A3 P1 r; ~9 E
5 L0 v6 X* c s) k0 H / {9 r, G, B; b( g V9 E$ g
Für eine Fußballmannschaft mit 8+1 zu wenig - der Klimakompromiss ist nach Meinung von Hans-Joachim Schellnhuber dennoch die Steilvorlage für das entscheidende Tor im Klimaschutz 0 d' Z7 e. O& T3 x0 U5 s L# e 9 S+ {3 U/ f7 @" g 3 k1 I# \( p' b; y0 W6 b' D5 M& X9 j# ~2 l; d$ B
Rifts May Disrupt G-8 Agenda + m5 x0 d/ ~9 W$ {4 m$ ?+ |5 N/ ]5 [2 p: \, i1 W6 R
Leaders of the Group of Eight leading nations gather this week for a summit aimed at producing a historic agreement on Germany''s vision for solving global warming. Instead, the meeting is likely to be marked by discord: between President Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin over defense issues, and between Mr. Bush and Europe over global warming. * g/ x2 `7 G$ R: Y% a# U1 d, t: R
The rifts underscore how the G-8 sometimes has come up short in addressing complex economic problems and how, some experts say, its meetings have increasingly become occasions for short-term crisis management and political theater. - P* {( y1 e3 ?) q5 p2 [0 A * g& c+ f2 @* cMr. Bush will add to the dramatics today with a speech that warns of new dangers to freedom around the world, both from Islamic radicalism and from authoritarian repression. Mr. Bush will make his remarks at a conference on democracy and security in Prague that is rife with reminders of the Soviet-era aggressiveness that Mr. Bush worries is on the rise again in Russia. Other scheduled speakers include former Soviet dissident Natan Sharansky and former Czech President Vaclav Havel, who led the Czech Republic''s emergence from the Soviet bloc. ; L' q& W; w* w! C0 U4 E1 t
& B+ N9 Y$ u Z; [: I( q Y
The event is likely to add to friction between the U.S. and Russia, just days after Mr. Putin threatened to reaim Russian nuclear missiles at European targets if the U.S. goes forward with a planned missile-defense shield in the Czech Republic and in Poland. While Mr. Bush''s remarks will look beyond Eastern Europe, he plans to discuss how democracy and freedom function 'as alternatives to repression and radicalism,' a senior administration official said, and 'how today''s world poses new threats to democracy and freedom.' ! J3 {$ M$ g! z" h. Y1 r * k1 E; m6 D/ y/ PAll the bluster is threatening to further upset the G-8 meeting that begins tomorrow in the German seaside resort of Heiligendamm. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who holds the group''s rotating presidency, had hoped to use the summit to lay the groundwork for new international curbs on emissions of the greenhouse gases that are thought to contribute to global warming. But Mr. Bush threw those plans into disarray last week, with his proposal for a new set of negotiations this fall on climate-change goals, to be held among the world''s 15 biggest polluters. % ^* m! }: t4 n" g+ A+ k* P, Q. z- C6 }8 a; M% G+ V0 W
That dialogue likely would include the current G-8 members -- the U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United Kingdom -- as well as emerging Asian powers China, India and South Korea, in addition to Australia, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa. In many cases, leaders of those nations prefer the Bush administration''s looser, more pragmatic approach to global warming to the hard-and-fast limits favored by Ms. Merkel and many Europeans. 2 T# c2 y- y, S$ P! f) d0 c ' o- i' d) \6 k3 e' H* c' ~Ms. Merkel acknowledged over the weekend that she probably won''t get the deal on climate change that she is seeking since Mr. Bush continues to resist specific commitments to cut carbon emissions. 'If the United States doesn''t move, others may also prefer to wait and see,' Ms. Merkel told German news magazine Der Spiegel. Most European officials worry that Mr. Bush''s counterproposal is vague and could undermine the European Union''s strategy for combating climate change through concrete commitments. 0 d2 Z. P. N9 v; X- c
\/ \0 P9 S( S5 G
The breakdown on climate policy and the growing focus on the U.S.-Russian conflict and related security crises, such as Iran''s nuclear program, reflect the difficulty the G-8 sometimes has had in living up to hopes it would become a forum for thrashing out long-term global economic-policy problems. % p2 ]8 Z9 K3 e8 t
$ B3 N* [! K% g% K0 V7 R' Y'On these big long-term issues, there''s a lot of happy talk, but not much action,' said Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. As a result, he said, the summit''s 'utility is evolving away from scripted, preplanned communiques to more free-flowing discussions among the big players.' 2 Y' b/ ^% N) D" D& i5 `* x # w( S y7 K: q+ H" {8 [As an example of G-8 success, Steve Sestanovich, a Clinton administration adviser on the former Soviet states, points to 1999, when the G-8 became a forum for the major powers to assemble on a United Nations Security Council resolution ending the Kosovo war. 'What mattered was that there was a concrete question that could be addressed and answered,' he said. 'When the G-8 has tried to serve as the high-minded voice of the civilized world -- on development goals or now perhaps climate change -- it''s been less effective.'
/ {9 r, G, B; b( g V9 E$ g