美国《国际先驱论坛报》23日刊登一篇署名文章说，随着中国经济飞速发展，预计今年亚洲国家将为世界经济增长提供最大的推动力，今年世界经济将实现4.9%的增长率。 , i* P6 p' N9 R4 a' D1 B ; M; |# f0 Y1 A; I 这家美国报纸这样描绘近10年来亚洲经济两重天的变化：十年前，亚洲大多数国家都笼罩在金融危机的阴影下；五年前，亚洲国家和世界其他地区一样，因为信息技术泡沫破裂和美国经济衰退而一筹莫展。但步入2007年，亚洲的天空中再难找到任何阴霾。 - t w! z0 G9 [9 L: f& y; F( s4 M
: O b. e, l, w4 h0 i* o; f* L 二战后经济遭受重创的德国采用美国推行的金本位制，开始长达20年的出口推动型经济扩张。到20世纪60年代末，德国便陷入困境：工资日益上涨使得通货膨胀抬头，然后经济衰退便开始了。文章援引德意志银行的一位官员报道：“人民币以优势汇率盯住美元再现了这种情况，中国正在走二战后德国的老路。”, J+ a+ R" R# K5 i% u" V
; A. O" T5 d9 s. U1 G- ^ + L/ `2 _6 n8 G% t# nThe rising stars of Asia can't carry whole show " H f# k$ D) H% |3 T+ w5 b8 r1 v0 g7 [- {) G' D4 u [
FRANKFURT: Ten years ago, much of Asia was wracked by a financial crisis that rippled through the global economy. Five years ago, the region suffered along with the rest of the globe under the weight of the technology bubble's collapse and a sharp recession in the United States. 9 A! r% I8 k: l& A) g& h7 d/ f / `* E3 W1 X' UBut as 2007 kicks off, it is hard to find a cloud in the Asian sky. In fact, with a booming Chinese economy at their core, Asian economies are forecast to provide the biggest share of world economic growth this year. + W3 R5 [: _8 T% h( G4 L' B * a' c% Z w7 h! cAs economists debate whether the United States may slow sharply or even tip into recession, Asia looks set to be the main driver of growth in the world economy in the coming year — and possibly longer.: |( u! F/ r ~ Z* [, l
& w6 q6 F9 K" {' @The strength reflects a regional economy that has matured rapidly to the point where it can stand on its own even if the United States — long a key export markets — stumbles.5 J: x8 n8 ?% j7 q8 x: l
5 [6 H, z" X' a5 X% D7 e5 e"The kind of slowdown that Asia has typically experienced in the last decade is unlikely to happen this year," said Peter Redward, head of Asia research for Barclays Capital in Singapore. "The structure of growth is very different than it has been in the past." $ Y7 t% Z' U4 S . p! u2 R5 ]: ^1 F: o. |: bThe outlook hints at what some economists believe may increasingly come to define a new world economic order. " Y1 r a2 n G0 x2 `7 e& z3 v1 K2 f# s' S
"We may well end up with an Atlantic business cycle and a Pacific business cycle," said Thomas Mayer, chief Europe economist at Deutsche Bank in London. "Europe is still tied into the United States, but how long will that be the case with Asia?" 4 a1 r& X! Z o* ^% s! M& y. h 1 G2 D4 ^ M O2 @3 qSo rapidly is China becoming a hub around which smaller economies like Thailand and Indonesia turn that the American market, whether thriving or waning, may carry less weight as an economic driver over time.7 U9 I* a( v" a% o
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As decision makers gather for the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, this "shifting power equation" is increasingly evident, economists say.$ M$ n" h6 _7 S" ^$ T
1 w% I3 k1 ]& [This year, Asia will be the largest contributor to global output, at about $1 trillion in nominal terms, Redward said. The American economy will churn out an additional $750 billion and Europe somewhat less than that.2 l4 p8 a/ ]; e( Y% \2 d8 P
+ E F0 `6 o4 MAccording to the International Monetary Fund, the global economy will expand at a brisk 4.9 percent, down only slightly from 5.1 percent in 2006. Moderate growth of between 2 percent and 3 percent is expected in the United States and the 13-country euro area. The economies of Asia excluding Japan are projected to outstrip them all with a robust expansion of 4.4 percent.+ s8 W t; j1 k
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Yet even as the Southeast Asian trading bloc gains muscle, there are limits to how strong the region can become if the United States slows. With economies knit together by complex global supply chains, outsourcing of data processing and customer service tasks, a severe downturn in the United States — possibly accompanied by a plunging dollar — would hit growth in Asia and elsewhere.1 X6 _ Y: X- e1 |
$ D2 ^! k. N' n/ X/ A( N"If the U.S. went through a dramatic slowdown, it would be hard for the world to ignore it," said Sun Bae Kim, an Asia economist with Goldman Sachs. "But if the U.S. settles into mediocre growth, Asia will be able to manage that quite well." ) f! Z2 \" U5 E! g/ p. o5 T 8 o* g& w5 U- u+ d1 ]5 vThe barrier to greater Asian independence from the U.S. economy is fairly clear. Economists say that as long as China relies on exports to fuel its economy and neglects the components of domestic demand — household spending, investment by companies at home — that characterize modern economies like the United States, Germany and Japan, it cannot drive Asian growth on its own. China's currency policy is part of this equation. As long as the yuan remains pegged to the U.S. dollar, the mild flexibility that Beijing introduced in 2005 will keep its exports cheap in the American market. But a sustained pickup in Chinese consumption will be the key to any Asian growth cycle, and that is approaching slowly, though faster than might have been expected a decade ago. ' w1 k9 x# o# Y& C# m' ~+ x: F. X8 h 9 l- f3 T/ }5 i. a8 ?, m4 L"Patience is called for — structural rebalancing toward consumption involves reforms that promote more equality in income and wealth distribution," Denise Yam, Asia economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a recent paper on the subject. "It could be several years before such reforms transform China into a promising consumer market." 0 e) @0 i4 w, U' u* G0 I2 @/ F, X+ U * Q8 C0 n* s: P2 d2 ]; Y2 _9 a# r: XAs China moves toward less export- dependent growth, it is following in the footsteps of another major economy, Germany, which became the locomotive of Europe as China is becoming for Asia today. 9 K' n# j- h$ W: W/ M2 |. }! M6 n, @9 {0 H3 I2 R, A v
A devastated nation after World War II, Germany latched onto the U.S.-enforced gold standard — the Bretton Woods system — and kicked off two decades of export-driven expansion as spending on the Korean War in the 1950s helped to restart factories across Europe.% B7 @0 \$ p% A, X3 o
- Q) a4 u) U5 E" H) mGermany bogged down in the late 1960s, when rising wages fired inflation before a nasty recession began. But by then, the German experience had a name that is not far from describing today's China: the Wirtschaftswunder, or economic miracle., V% {/ Q3 d% @. x! U/ x& B
. |% j% z' H5 n( p! K$ w* `"The Chinese recreated Bretton Woods by tying to the U.S. dollar at a competitive rate," Mayer of Deutsche Bank said, "and sailing the same way as Germany did after World War II."
